A decentralized prediction market, Polymarket, has recorded a notable shift in betting odds for the upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election. As of August 21, former President Donald Trump regained his lead in the odds against Vice President Kamala Harris. This change follows an earlier shift on August 12, where Harris briefly led with a 52% chance of winning compared to Trump’s 46%. However, Trump’s resurgence now places his odds at 52%, while Harris’s odds stand at 47%.
In mid-July, Donald Trump held a commanding 70% chance of winning the election, but by August 12, his lead had dwindled. Kamala Harris overtook Trump, reaching a 52% chance of success. This marked a significant shift in the betting landscape, attracting increased attention to Polymarket as both traditional finance and crypto communities engaged with the predictions. The U.S. presidential race continues to be a major topic of discussion on Polymarket, which has gained popularity ahead of the November elections.
Public Reactions and Rumors
The recent surge in Trump’s odds has led to widespread reactions across social media, particularly concerning rumors surrounding Harris’ potential policy plans. Speculation has circulated that Harris might support a 25% tax on unrealized gains, though no confirmation has been provided.
These rumors sparked discussions on X, where many users expressed their opinions. Charles Hoskinson, co-founder of Cardano, described the rumored tax as “unconstitutional theft,” intensifying the conversation. This reaction highlights how speculation and unverified claims can influence public discourse during an election cycle.
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In a separate event, Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk conducted an informal poll on X, asking his followers to choose between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump as the next U.S. president. While Musk labeled the poll “unscientific,” he noted that he launched it due to popular demand.
Over 3.9 million users participated, with 74% favoring Trump and 25% supporting Harris. The poll attracted substantial attention, amassing more than 40 million views and being shared 85,000 times.
Ultimately, Bitcoin saw a reversal in its recent gains on Tuesday, as prices dropped to just over $59,000. However, analyst Crypto Rover remains optimistic, suggesting that improved odds for Trump could be a bullish signal for the cryptocurrency. Whether Bitcoin will experience an immediate surge or see upward momentum closer to the elections remains uncertain.
