BitMEX co-founder and cryptocurrency analyst Arthur Hayes has made some bearish predictions for Bitcoin’s (BTC) price following the halving event. Sharing his insights in an April 8 blog post, Hayes wrote that he expects the upcoming halving event to “pump prices in the medium term.” However, he warned that the prices “directly before and after could be negative.”
Hayes pointed out that the general expectation of the post-halving surge is misplaced. He noted that when the majority of the market sentiment is geared towards a certain outcome, “the opposite usually occurs.”
The halving coincides with a period of reduced dollar liquidity, Hayes wrote, scrutinizing the interplay between U.S. monetary policy and crypto market dynamics. According to Hayes, Quantitative Tightening (QT) and the Treasury’s General Account (TGA) utilization will “add propellant to raging firesale of crypto assets.”
Hayes expects the latter half of April to be a “precarious period” for high-risk assets. However, he did not completely eliminate the possibility of the market defying his “bearish” outlook. “I’m perennially long,” Hayes wrote, adding that he is open to “being wrong” about his predictions.
Monetary policy is expected to soften in the post-halving period, especially after May 1, the blog noted. Hayes based these expectations on the fact that the Federal Reserve would potentially slow QT measures, and the Treasury would be infusing liquidity, around $1 trillion, into the economy.
Based on his analysis, Hayes said he’s decided to “abstain from trading until May.” This notion is fuelled by the Fed and Treasury’s “bag of tricks” and the looming Bitcoin halving.
The BitMEX co-founder doubled down on his theory, adding that if it plays out, he would look to invest in “all manner” of investment opportunities. According to Hayes, losing a “few percentage points of gains” is an “acceptable outcome” if that means avoiding losses.
As of now, cryptocurrency traders are awaiting the March CPI data and the FOMC meeting, two important events that have historically affected market trends. Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said he expects the Fed to cut rates even though he doesn’t see a “good reason.”
