Bitcoin & Ethereum Must Hit $70K and $4K for Alt Season, Says Arthur Hayes

• Bitcoin and Ethereum must exceed $70,000 and $4,000, respectively, to trigger the next altcoin season.
• September’s liquidity surge will help crypto break out of its recent stagnation, boosting market activity.
• Post-debt ceiling resolution in early 2024 may ignite a strong bull run, with Bitcoin potentially hitting $1 million.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, predicts a shift in the cryptocurrency landscape. He suggests that an altcoin season will not emerge until Bitcoin and Ethereum surpass critical price thresholds, as reported by journalist Colin Wu. According to Hayes, Bitcoin needs to breach $70,000, while Ethereum must climb above $4,000 for the alt season to commence. Additionally, he expects Solana to rise past $250. 

These price points are crucial for reversing the current sideways and downward trends observed in the market. Starting in September, the anticipated resurgence of liquidity from the US dollar will play a significant role in this turnaround.

As liquidity improves due to increased issuance of T-bills and buyback programs, the crypto market is poised to break out of its recent stagnation. Hayes believes that this period of summer weakness offers a strategic opportunity to increase exposure to cryptocurrencies. 

The upcoming US election in November will also impact market dynamics, with Yellen likely to employ extensive manipulation in October to boost liquidity. Therefore, Hayes plans to capitalize on any market strength by taking profits from speculative trades and reallocating capital into more stable assets like staked Ethena USD (sUSDe).

The intersection of rising liquidity and market conditions will likely influence the election outcome. Hayes anticipates that a strong crypto market could increase Trump’s chances of victory. However, with the highly unpredictable election, he prefers to remain cautious and wait until after the US debt ceiling is raised, expected in January or February. This anticipated resolution will likely release significant liquidity, setting the stage for a robust bull market.

Furthermore, Hayes forecasts that once the US debt ceiling issue is resolved, a major surge in liquidity from both the Treasury and the Fed will invigorate the markets. This influx could signal the beginning of a substantial bull run, reinforcing his belief in a $1 million Bitcoin as a plausible scenario. In addition, the convergence of US financial manoeuvres with anticipated Chinese fiscal stimulus will set the stage for a powerful crypto bull market in 2025.