- Institutional interest in Bitcoin remains high, with significant inflows into ETPs and record-high open interest in CME futures.
- BTC tends to surge ahead of major events, such as previous peaks coinciding with significant announcements and launches.
- The pending ETF verdict in early January is crucial to Bitcoin’s December performance.
In December, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market appeared set for a bullish trend, as highlighted by K33 Research through a tweet on the X platform. The anticipation for the upcoming ETF verdict in early January has led to a prevailing sense of optimism in the market. Furthermore, historical data indicates a strong December performance for Bitcoin, typically aligning with significant events and milestones.
Significantly, the ETF hype has rekindled Bitcoin excitement in recent months. This excitement is the driving force as the deadline nears, expected between January 8 and 10. Hence, the positive momentum since October, backed by strong institutional demand, appears unyielding.
Furthermore, Bitcoin’s pattern of surging ahead of significant events is noteworthy. For instance, it peaked during the CME’s BTC futures launch 2017 and Coinbase’s public debut in April 2021. Additionally, it spiked on El Salvador’s legal tender announcement and VanEck’s spot ETF deadline in 2021. These precedents lead to a logical prediction that the history is most likely to repeat this time too.
Institutional interest in Bitcoin remains high. November saw nearly 40k BTC inflows into ETPs globally. Besides, CME’s open interest has hit record highs, with futures premiums soaring to 20%. These trends affirm the solid strength of Bitcoin, while retail participation lags.
However, offshore flows are limited. Bitcoin-denominated open interest in BTC perps is at yearly lows. Funding rates, though constructive, show no signs of crypto-native euphoria. All these indicators suggest robust support for a strong December in Bitcoin.
Since late October, there has been a noticeable increase in ETF anticipation. CME exposure has remained stable, and ETP flows have consistently shown an upward trajectory, resulting in substantial profits. However, historical data suggests that Bitcoin tends to reach its peak during major events, which is prompting traders to exercise caution and wait.
For December, maintaining the long position entered in September seems wise. Reducing leveraged exposure and de-risking the portfolio is prudent as the ETF deadline approaches. This strategy allows for assessing actual U.S. ETF flows once the verdict is out.
At the time of this report, Bitcoin is priced at $43,984.73, reflecting a 5.58% uptick over the past day. Hence, the market outlook remains buoyant. Overall, the momentum and historical patterns are compelling for a strong December in the Bitcoin market, per K33 Research’s analysis.
The crypto market, specifically Bitcoin, is gearing up for a robust December. One of the primary reasons behind this optimism is the pending decision on the ETF. The overall market sentiment remains optimistic, given the substantial backing from institutional investors and historical patterns that indicate a favorable upward trend. Importantly, how the market approaches and reacts to the impending ETF deadline will be pivotal in determining Bitcoin’s direction in the weeks ahead.
