Bitcoin’s notorious September woes are living up to their reputation, as the flagship cryptocurrency hovers precariously around $25,829.44, sparking conversations around a possible bear market continuation. Analysts are scrutinizing key metrics, including delayed ETF approvals, the much-discussed halving event, and the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), to make sense of Bitcoin’s next moves.
Long-standing market observers like Michaël van de Poppe highlight that September is historically a troublesome month for Bitcoin, with the cryptocurrency seeing an average loss of between 5-8% during this period. According to his analysis on the X platform, this statistical downturn could drive Bitcoin’s value to hover around $23-24K, well below its 200-week EMA.
The worst period of the year, September, for #Bitcoin.
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) September 1, 2023
Are we going to continue falling down? Are we continuing the bear market cycle and are we expecting #Bitcoin to test $20K, while approaching the halving, ETF's and more?
Bitcoin drops to $25.5K. What's next? 👇
I've… pic.twitter.com/CuBXFE8WnZ
This would serve as a strategic point for bears to pile up shorts, capitalizing on expected bearish trends. However, it is also essential to note that every cloud has a silver lining; the last quarter of the year often brings a market upswing. Recalling 2015, a year that set the stage for a massive Q4 rally, 2024’s significance might mimic a similar bullish momentum.
Michaël van de Poppe suggests that the price range between $24,700 and $25,200 is crucial to watch. If Bitcoin manages to hold within this range, it could trigger a “sweep of the lows”, setting off massive bullish divergences. Such a movement would provide a more than opportune moment for long entries. However, failure to maintain this crucial zone could imply a bearish slide, possibly plummeting Bitcoin’s price to $23K or even the $20K mark.
With a live market cap exceeding $500 billion and trading at $25,838.15, Bitcoin remains the undisputed leader in the cryptocurrency space. As the crypto community keenly watches the unfolding trends, some believe this downturn may be the last chance to board the Bitcoin train at discounted prices before 2024, a year touted as significant for several reasons, including regulatory clarity and increased adoption.
The tense environment, looming regulatory decisions, and technical indicators have left the market at a crossroads. Whether Bitcoin would continue to suffer September’s curse or manage a rebound in the last quarter remains to be seen. One thing is sure, however: with high volatility and fluctuating metrics, Bitcoin continues to be a space where only the brave dare to tread.
