The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is approaching a pivotal window that could see the approval of twelve spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), a decision that is being closely watched by the cryptocurrency industry. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart has identified the period between November 9 and November 17 as a critical juncture for these approvals.
New Research note from me today. We still believe 90% chance by Jan 10 for spot #Bitcoin ETF approvals. But if it comes earlier we are entering a window where a wave of approval orders for all the current applicants *COULD* occur pic.twitter.com/u6dBva1ytD
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) November 8, 2023
The SEC’s simultaneous issuance of delay orders for a group of applicants, including industry giants like BlackRock, Bitwise, VanEck, WisdomTree, Invesco, Fidelity, and Valkyrie, has set the stage for a potential mass approval. Seyffart indicated that this window is the first available opportunity for the SEC to approve all 12 filings since Grayscale’s legal victory was affirmed.
The SEC’s consideration period for all twelve applications concludes on November 17. However, Seyffart noted that the SEC has the discretion to render a verdict on nine of the twelve submissions at any point until January 10.
The potential for these approvals has been met with a bullish response from the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin has seen a price increase of over 30% in the last three months, according to data from Coingecko. Other major cryptocurrencies have also experienced significant gains, with Solana (SOL) surging 93%, Ripple (XRP) climbing 36%, and Ether (ETH) increasing 20% in the past month.
Meanwhile, following its court victory on August 29, leading asset management firm Grayscale has been in discussions with the SEC’s Division of Trading and Markets and the Division of Corporation Finance. The focus of these discussions is Grayscale’s application to convert its GBTC trust into a spot Bitcoin ETF, a move that could potentially ease the way for everyday investors to engage with digital assets.
However, despite the optimism, caution persists among some market analysts. Notably, user DB has pointed out that an ETF cannot be approved while it is in the comment period, tempering expectations with a reminder of procedural norms. The user suggested that while approvals are possible, they may be more likely to occur after the comment periods conclude, with January 2024 being a plausible timeframe for such developments.
Responding to DB, Seyffart clarified that the SEC could approve the first nine Bitcoin ETFs anytime until January 10. He noted the current window might be the sole chance for all twelve approvals together before January but also reminded that the SEC’s decisions are not certain and could include denials.
