In a recent revelation, renowned cryptocurrency analyst Rekt Capital delves into the five intricate dynamics surrounding Bitcoin’s pre-halving phases. Through a meticulous analysis of historical data and trends, Rekt Capital unveils potential scenarios that may shape the future of the crypto market.
#BTC
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) October 6, 2023
5 Phases of The Bitcoin Halving
1. Pre-Halving period
If a deeper retrace is going to occur, it will likely be over the next 140 days or so (orange)
In fact, $BTC retraced -24% in 2015 and -38% in 2019 at this same point in the cycle (i.e. ~200 days before the Halving)… pic.twitter.com/r1dAWBJXyw
According to Rekt Capital, the first phase is the pre-halving period, where Bitcoin experiences a possible retracement over approximately 140 days (indicated in orange). Historical data shows that Bitcoin retraced -24% in 2015 and -38% in 2019 at this exact point in the cycle, roughly 200 days before the Halving event. If history repeats itself, a -30% drop from current prices could see Bitcoin revisiting the $20,000 mark.
Approximately 60 days prior to the Halving, the analysis emphasizes a pre-halving rally. In this stage, investors commonly purchase amidst heightened anticipation for the Halving, only to execute a “Sell the News” approach afterward.
The third phase, the pre-halving retrace, occurs around the Halving event, marked by a dark blue circle. In 2016, this retracement was -38% deep, while in 2020, it was -20%. This phase often leaves investors questioning whether the Halving truly has a bullish impact on Bitcoin’s price.
Following the pre-halving retrace, the Bitcoin market transitions into a re-accumulation phase (indicated in red). Certain investors might experience frustration during this stage due to the absence of substantial gains in their Bitcoin holdings immediately following the Halving event. A prevailing sense of boredom, impatience, and occasional disappointment marks the re-accumulation phase.
Perhaps the most exciting final phase is the parabolic uptrend (shown in green). This is when Bitcoin breaks out from the re-accumulation zone and embarks on accelerated growth, ultimately reaching new all-time highs.
Rekt Capital’s analysis provides valuable insights into the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s price movements, highlighting the importance of historical data and trends in predicting potential scenarios. As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve, understanding these phases and their implications could be a valuable tool for both seasoned and novice investors in navigating the complex world of Bitcoin.
