The latest data from Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform, reveals a significant shift in the odds for the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Vice President Kamala Harris has a 52% chance of winning, surpassing Donald Trump’s 46%. This marks a change from mid-July when Trump’s chances were at 70%. Over the weekend, Harris overtook Trump, reflecting growing support for her campaign.
The U.S. election remains the most prominent topic on Polymarket, with trading volume exceeding $572 million. This high activity level underscores the intense interest and stakes in this election cycle. Harris’s recent surge in prediction markets coincides with her campaign’s strategic outreach to cryptocurrency. Although Harris and her running mate, Tim Walz, have yet to make a public stance on cryptocurrency, they have begun to engage with the industry.
Democrats Unveil ‘Crypto for Harris’ to Counter Trump’s LeadThis is notable because cryptocurrency has become a significant topic in the election, with Trump’s pro-crypto stance also making headlines. Trump has repeatedly expressed support for Bitcoin, emphasizing that the U.S. should focus on building its crypto assets rather than selling them.
Additionally, grassroots efforts are mobilizing in support of Harris. Crypto4Harris is organizing a town hall on Wednesday featuring prominent figures such as Sheila Warren, CEO of the Crypto Council for Innovation, and billionaire Mark Cuban. This event aims to rally support for Harris while advocating for policies that position the U.S. as a leader in digital assets.
In contrast, Trump’s recent remarks highlighted his belief that the U.S. should not sell its cryptocurrency assets. He argues that other countries, particularly China, are advancing in this field, and the U.S. should stay caught up. In light of these views, Elon Musk is scheduled to have a live discussion with Trump on X at 8:00 p.m. ET on Monday, as announced by Musk.
Meanwhile, the Winklevoss twins, Tyler and Cameron, have called on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to reconsider its proposal on event contracts, which they argue is too vague and restrictive. Their crypto exchange, Gemini, has joined Coinbase in opposing the CFTC’s Notice of Proposed Rulemaking from May 2024.
Tyler Winklevoss emphasized that the proposed rules could effectively ban event contracts in the U.S., potentially stifling major prediction markets like Polymarket. He asserted that U.S. citizens should retain the right to engage with these markets. Cameron Winklevoss further supported this stance by highlighting the negative implications of the proposal in a detailed thread, underscoring the value of transparent crypto prediction platforms in the broader financial ecosystem.
