Jeremy Hogan, an American lawyer, hints that the long-standing case between the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) and Ripple Labs would get resolved by 2027. He laid out two major possibilities in his recent post on X, stating the chances for each of the possible moves by SEC.
I'm seeing some confusion as to what could happen next in the Ripple v. SEC case now that the Judge denied an interlocutory appeal.
— Jeremy Hogan (@attorneyjeremy1) October 8, 2023
Sooo, I have outlined every possibility and provided the exact chance of each possibility happening and how long each would take. Exactly.
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The case, dating back to 2020, is scheduled for a trial on April 24, 2023, by Judge Analisa Torres after rejecting the interlocutory appeal against Ripple. It was considered a partial win on the side of Ripple, and on the same day, XRP’s price soared by 6%.
Hogan, who has been sharing valuable insights about Ripple’s case against SEC, has provoked anticipation among Crypto enthusiasts after his tweet about the resolvent date. He predicted the most possible move of the SEC, with a 39.456% probability, is to proceed with a trial against the defendants.
This move could also be risky for SEC, as an appeal wouldn’t be filed until 2025, and explains there is no possibility for an appellate ruling til 2026. In this route, the case would most likely be remanded by Judge Torres, and a final resolution can happen by June 14, 2027.
The second most viable move of the SEC is to go for a settlement with individual defendants. According to Hogan, there is a 32.113% chance for the SEC to choose this path, as it could expedite the appellate court by 9-12 months, saving resources. In such a situation, the case would proceed to remedies litigation, and Hogan precisely predicted it would prolong till August 14, 2026.
Hogan also claimed a possibility for the SEC to go for a full settlement with Ripple Labs by imposing a financial penalty. This could become a winning situation for the SEC, but the attorney revealed that the chances are too low, with a probability of 18.987%, as the regulatory body is not willing to proceed on this line.
Finally, Hogan leaves an 8.675% chance with no predictions, thinking the SEC may have many possible moves apart from his predictions. As per Hogan’s analysis, the most expected move of the SEC could be going for a trial and pushing the case till 2027. SEC is in a precarious position with the least hope of a favorable result.
