Uptober Sentiment Declines as Crypto Traders Become Bearish

• “Uptober” experiences a decline as crypto traders grow more bearish on October’s prospects.
• Bitcoin dips below $60K, but historical October data hints at possible mid-month recovery.
• The crypto market loses $200B in October, highlighting waning optimism among investors.

The use of the term “Uptober” has decreased in early October, suggesting a bearish sentiment among crypto traders. According to on-chain analytics provider Santiment, traders have scaled back their expectations for an automatic October pop in crypto markets. This change in market sentiment emerges after a fairly steady decline in recent months, much to the point that it has been nicknamed “Selltober” or “Octobear.”

🎃 Mentions of "Uptober" have declined significantly, painting a picture that traders have become much more bearish on the idea of this month being an automatic money printer for crypto. The lack of optimism opens the door for (at least) a short-term bounce. 📈 https://t.co/iACWMGPvSs

— Santiment (@santimentfeed) October 3, 2024

Of all the months in a year, October seems to be particularly favorable to Bitcoin, hence the name ‘Uptober.’ Analyzing the history of the past 11 years, it can be established that in nine years, there was a rise in the price of Bitcoin in the month of October, and for the last 5 Octobers, there was a continuous increase in the price of Bitcoin. In some of these years, the monthly growth rate was between 5.5% and 40%, even in bear market conditions. However, the current market conditions seem less favorable, with Bitcoin suffering a significant decline.

Market Decline and Potential Rebound

Crypto markets have lost about $200 billion since October began. That’s an 8% drop in market value. As of October 3, the market cap was back to mid-September levels, hovering around $2.2 trillion. Bitcoin briefly fell below $60,000. It then bounced back to $61,000 but it remains under pressure.

Despite this bearish trend, Maksim Balashevich, the founder of Santiment, believes the current pessimism could pave the way for a short-term recovery. “Uptober excitement wanes as the market dips, which does open the door for a rebound,” he said, though he acknowledged that it remains uncertain whether the larger downtrend has ended. 

Bitcoin has lost about 4.7% in October so far. It dropped from its monthly high of $64,000 at the start of the month to its current price. In contrast, last year, in October 2023, Bitcoin initially dropped by 7% but later surged almost 30%, ending the month at $34,500.

However, based on historical facts, the crypto markets typically begin their climb back in the middle of October. It is yet to be established whether this year will follow the same trend, depending on investors’ consideration of macroeconomic factors and market indications in the coming weeks.