12 April, 2024



2023 vs. 2015 vs. 2019: Predicting Bitcoin’s Pre-Halving Path

26 Sep, 2023

01 Dec, 2023

  • Bitcoin’s historic monthly resistance shift signals potential downside risk at the $23,300 support level.
  • 2023 mirrors 2019, favoring pre-halving consolidation that might cause a unique path to emerge.
  • The analyst considers seizing opportunities amidst pre-halving challenges for post-halving rewards.

As the crypto world eagerly counts down to the next Bitcoin halving event, the stage is set for a showdown between historical trends and the unpredictable nature of the cryptocurrency market. In this exclusive analysis, Rekt Capital, a crypto trader and analyst, dives deep into the intricate web of Bitcoin’s pre-halving dynamics, exploring the potential scenarios that lie ahead.

September has witnessed a remarkable transformation in Bitcoin’s price action. Bitcoin has not only tested but also confirmed the significance of the $27,150 level as a formidable monthly resistance, as shown in the chart below. This is a historical milestone, as this level had previously served as a sturdy support zone in late 2020 and early 2021.

Bitcoin’s resistance vs. support, Source: Rekt Capital

The critical question that now looms is the nature of this resistance. If it is a feeble barrier or an impregnable fortress. The answer to this question remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: if the black line continues to repel Bitcoin’s advances, a descent toward the next monthly support at approximately $23,300 (depicted in orange) becomes a likely scenario.

Zooming out to assess the macro picture, it’s evident that Bitcoin is still nestled within a new uptrend. The macro downtrend was breached months ago, marking a significant turning point. However, the subsequent upward movement has been less exhilarating than expected.

Bitcoin`s macro uptrend, Source: Rekt Capital

Historically, Bitcoin has followed a pattern where substantial price action tends to unfold closer to and after a halving event. In 2015, there was a preliminary surge before months of consolidation led to the halving. The real fireworks began afterward. In 2019, while the price rallied impressively, it also retraced sharply following a local peak in June.

Considering these precedents, it’s reasonable to anticipate that the months leading up to the April 2024 halving may be uneventful. Bitcoin could consolidate at its current highs if history rhymes, possibly experiencing some incremental gains closer to the event. However, if the 2019 scenario repeats, a period of downside correction might precede a rebound around the halving event.

Yet, 2023 exhibits characteristics reminiscent of 2019, suggesting a current bias toward a bearish sentiment. However, it’s essential to recognize that 2023 may chart its course, blending elements from 2015 and 2019. As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at $26,268, a 0.7% surge in the past 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap.

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