- Hayes urges new buyers to stop chasing fast profits but to think about BTC long-term.
- Analysts warn that halving cycle data cannot accurately predict Bitcoin’s growth.
- Bitcoin has returned over 82% annually over the decade, showing long-term value.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has urged Bitcoin investors to adopt patience, cautioning against comparing the cryptocurrency’s progress with recent stock and gold records. Speaking in a YouTube interview with Kyle Chasse on Friday, Hayes said short-term comparisons miss Bitcoin’s long-term value story.
Haynes pointed out that users buy a Bitcoin and immediately think of a luxury purchase, and by that, many get liquidated. He further stressed that many new investors misunderstand the timeline of Bitcoin’s growth.
Hayes Pushes for Long-Term Perspective
Hayes stressed that those holding Bitcoin for years are in a far stronger position than recent buyers. “I’m sorry that you bought Bitcoin six months ago, but anyone who bought it two, three, five, or 10 years ago, they’re laughing,” Hayes said. His remarks come amid frustration from newer investors asking why Bitcoin is not trading at $150,000.
Analysts echoed similar warnings in the past week. Many noted that traders expecting a peak in Q4 2025 lack a proper understanding of probability. Bitcoin analyst PlanC explained that such thinking is like betting on a coin flip based on previous flips. He said that from a statistical and probability standpoint, it is equivalent to flipping a coin and getting tails three times in a row, then betting all your money that the fourth flip must be tails.
PlanC argued that halving cycles no longer provides reliable guidance, stressing that the three previous cycles do not offer enough statistically significant data. He added that with Bitcoin treasury firms rising, the halving debate has lost relevance. “People need to readjust their perspective on this,” he added. Data from Curvo shows Bitcoin has delivered an average annualized return of 82.4% over the past decade.
Questioning Market Comparisons
During the interview, Hayes dismissed comparisons between Bitcoin and record highs in the S&P 500 or gold. When asked about future flows into crypto from the global M2 money supply, Hayes rejected the question and emphasized that Bitcoin is the best-performing asset.
Hayes explained that while the S&P 500 is “up in dollar terms,” it remains below pre-2008 levels when measured against gold. “Deflating the housing market by gold again and not anywhere close to where it was,” Hayes added. He said only U.S. tech stocks show strength when measured against gold. The discussion returned to Bitcoin’s comparative performance. “If you deflate things by Bitcoin, you can’t even see it on the chart; it is just so ridiculous about how well Bitcoin has performed,” Hayes said.
Related: Arthur Hayes Joins Longevity Hacking Craze After Trump’s Pardon
Market Outlook and Projections
As of press time, Bitcoin trades at $115,983, nearly doubling in value over the past year with a 98.98% gain, according to CoinMarketCap data. Its market capitalization stands at $2.31 trillion, supported by a circulating supply of 19.91 million BTC out of 21 million. Daily trading volume reached $46.48 billion, down 14.12% from the prior day.
The chart shows Bitcoin’s climb from October 2024’s $58,130 level, with strong rallies in December, February, and July, before stabilizing above $110,000 in September 2025. Hayes previously projected in April 2025 that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by year-end. In May, Unchained Market Research Director Joe Burnett made the same projection. The question now remains: Can Bitcoin’s long-term performance continue to outpace traditional assets once adjusted for inflation, gold, and purchasing power terms?
