Bitcoin Outlook Weakens Amid Fear and Falling Momentum
- Polymarket gives Bitcoin a 30% chance of hitting $100K, reflecting fading bullish confidence.
- Bitcoin slides 18% from $126K, testing $103K with traders eyeing $100K as key support.
- Despite fear sentiment, institutions hold 1.02M BTC, signaling long-term confidence in Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s latest market action has left traders divided between cautious optimism and deep uncertainty. After surging to a historic peak of $126,000, it has faced a week-long bearish stretch that has shaken investor confidence. A steep decline began on October 6. Since then, Bitcoin has fallen nearly 18%, reaching $103,000 before recovering slightly.
According to Polymarket prediction data, Bitcoin now has only a 30% chance of reclaiming $100,000 this month. Traders give it only a 1% chance that it will break $150,000, which shows fading bullish conviction. This change comes as macroeconomic uncertainty together with technical weakness weigh on confidence. Bitcoin has dropped about 11% in the last week, marking four days in a row of losses. Bitcoin was trading around $111,100 at the time of writing, close to its main psychological support level.
Market Sentiment Turns Bearish
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 28, its lowest level in more than a month. This move signals extreme caution among traders. Historically, such readings have aligned with market bottoms, yet the current trend suggests sustained pressure. Liquidity remains thin as leveraged positions unwind and traders reduce exposure.
Despite the pullback, Bitcoin’s market dominance has risen to 58.7%. This indicates that while altcoins are underperforming, capital is consolidating into Bitcoin. Institutional participation remains evident. Public companies now collectively hold 1.04 million BTC in their treasuries, showing long-term confidence in the asset. However, short-term sentiment remains fragile, and traders continue to monitor the $100,000 support level closely.
Technical and On-Chain Indicators
Bitcoin’s chart structure shows a clear liquidity sweep below $104,000. Stop-losses were triggered, and demand absorbed heavy selling pressure before a rebound. The long wick that followed suggests institutional buying occurred in that zone. The subsequent move toward $112,000 indicates a possible relief rally, but the broader trend still leans bearish.
Source: TradindView
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still trending lower, indicating that sellers are still in charge. It is currently around 44, which means there is room for a short-term rise. An upside move toward $112,500 or even $115,000 could be triggered by a daily close above $111,250. If Bitcoin fails to stay above these levels, the next target for the downside is around $103,500, which is a key area of structural and psychological support.
On-chain data supports this mixed view. A majority of Bitcoin’s circulating supply remains in profit, meaning most long-term holders still sit on gains. Recent buyers, however, are under pressure. Short-term holders have contributed heavily to the recent volatility. Realized profit data shows no signs of mass liquidation, suggesting that major investors are not yet selling aggressively.
Related: Bitcoin Poised for Parabolic Growth as Gold Takes the Lead
Institutional Flows and Macro Pressures
Even with the decline, institutional inflows are still occurring. Spot Bitcoin ETFs maintain steady demand, providing some cushion against volatility. There are still untested liquidity pockets close to $125,000 that might spur upward movement if momentum changes. However, macroeconomic factors continue to be a concern. Risk asset volatility has been fueled by the strengthening of the U.S. dollar and speculation about rate changes.
Bitcoin’s price reaction mirrors its historical pattern during tightening liquidity conditions, sharp drops followed by consolidation around major support levels. The current stabilization near $110,000 fits that narrative. However, traders are cautious because rising global yields and a strong dollar could cap any attempts to recover.
Overall, Bitcoin stands at a defining point in its 2025 market cycle. Whether the current decline is a mid-cycle correction or the beginning of a deeper downturn will be determined by the response around the current levels. Although sentiment is still dominated by fear, on-chain indicators point to underlying strength and ongoing institutional interest.
