Alliance DAO Co-Founder Warns of Crypto Top, Cites AI Power
- QwQiao warns crypto may sit near its cycle top as seasoned investors turn cautious.
- He says AI drives the entire U.S. stock cycle and could trigger a broad market collapse.
- He highlights faster growth in stablecoin startups due to strong utility and low competition.
Alliance DAO co-founder QwQiao warned that the crypto market may have reached its cycle top, despite macro indicators suggesting strength. He said the market now feels heavy and unstable, with sentiment shifting sharply in mid-September. QwQiao described crypto as a “self-fulfilling asset class” driven by fixed expectations. He argued that the four-year cycle still dominates trader behavior and now exerts more pressure than any other market force.
Growing Caution in Crypto Markets
QwQiao said macro signals still look strong. He pointed to U.S. rate cuts and rising liquidity. He also noted that the Treasury’s account rebuild supports broad risk assets. Despite this, he said the crypto market feels near a cycle top.
He explained that long-term investors changed their stance. Many became cautious after months of substantial gains. Sentiment weakened as prices stalled across major assets. He suggested this shift created a tense backdrop for the rest of the market.
He warned that traders should not ignore this change. According to him, the mood inside the industry matters. QwQiao added that most experienced investors already signaled their discomfort. He believes this signals a key turning point.
AI as the Driving Force in U.S. Stocks
QwQiao also examined the U.S. stock market. He claimed the current cycle depends solely on artificial intelligence. He said liquidity, technicals, and macro signals no longer lead the trend. He argued that AI stocks now hold all market momentum.
He compared Nvidia to Bitcoin. He said both assets act as emotional anchors for their markets. QwQiao noted that strong Nvidia rallies often drain money from crypto. He said this creates a simple “AI vs everything else” setup.
He explained the risk in blunt terms. If AI stocks fall, they could pull the whole market down. If they rise, they could push out bearish traders. This dynamic now shapes every significant move in U.S. equities.
QwQiao also talked about his own returns this year. He said his stock gains beat his crypto gains by a wide margin. He avoided high-growth AI names with weak fundamentals. QwQiao chose what he called “quality companies at reasonable prices.”
Stablecoin Startups Gain Momentum
QwQiao also highlighted a significant trend in startups. He said stablecoin companies grow faster than AI startups. He pointed to strong demand and low competition. This creates a large open field for early teams, according to him.
Some users questioned his point. They listed known stablecoin issuers such as Tether and Circle. QwQiao said those companies are not startups. He also said the stablecoin market has many layers.
He added that competition in the app layer remains thin, noting that most regions have only a few serious players. He compared this with AI, where dozens compete in every vertical, saying this difference explains the growth gap.
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QwQiao said stablecoins now offer simple products with straightforward utility. He added that this gives them steady traction. According to him, startup activity in this sector will continue to rise. He said founders see this momentum and react quickly.
QwQiao ended with a broader warning. He said the market now sits in a fragile position. Crypto shows early signs of exhaustion. U.S. stocks depend on a single theme. He believes the next move will set the tone for months, saying crypto may not escape the impact.
