Will Bitcoin Blast Off to $150K? Critical On-Chain Metrics Point to Two Possible Scenarios

In an analysis by onchain_edge, shared by CryptoQuant.com, Bitcoin’s (BTC) future looks promising, with two potential paths leading to an ambitious $150k mark. This forecast emerges from over 100 hours of meticulous on-chain data examination. The analysis unfolds a tale of current market indicators and historical parallels, painting a complex yet optimistic picture of BTC’s trajectory.

Net unrealized profits and losses (NUPL) hover near a critical 0.54 level, reminiscent of the 2019 peak, currently at 0.49. This signals a substantial portion of the market in profit, yet not at the euphoric highs of previous cycles. Additionally, the Puell Multiple, another key metric, stands at 1.83, shy of the 2.05 barrier seen in 2019, suggesting more room for growth.

$BTC has two Paths. Both Lead to $150k

“I spent over 100 hours diving through on-chain data to find out. Here's what I found…” – By @onchain_edge

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— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) February 15, 2024

Moreover, BTC’s open interest parallels early 2021 levels, indicating a healthy and growing interest. However, the gradual rise in open interest, devoid of a 2021-like explosive peak, hints at the potential for further escalation.

Scenario A mirrors the 2019 cycle, where the supply in loss bottomed at 16%, predicting a dip to the realized price line ($23k) within six months, followed by a recovery. On the other hand, Scenario B envisages a drop in supply and loss of 3%, setting the stage for a significant bull run, potentially catapulting BTC to $150k.

Significantly, Scenario B gains traction as the more probable outcome. The absence of new money influx and an open interest blow-off top aligns with this bullish outlook. Hence, patience is advised against hasty sell-offs, with the market known for its unforeseen twists.

Consequently, the analysis advises against leveraging, emphasizing the market’s unpredictability. At the time of press, Bitcoin is traded at $51,884.41 and is experiencing a slight 0.22% dip over the last 24 hours.

The detailed on-chain analysis by onchain_edge, shared by CryptoQuant.com, offers a compelling glimpse into Bitcoin’s potential future. Both scenarios, backed by nuanced data interpretation, underscore the dynamic and unpredictable nature of the crypto market.