Crypto enthusiasts are eagerly eyeing the potential approval of a spot Ether (ETH) exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before May 31. This anticipation has sparked a flurry of activity in the crypto gambling sphere, with traders placing their bets on the outcome.
Since the inception of Bitcoin ETFs, the market has witnessed significant fluctuations, with $GBTC outflows initially dampening the pace. However, February marked a turning point as ETFs began experiencing substantial net inflows, totaling approximately $12 billion. As highlighted by Daan Crypto, an analyst, this surge in investments has played a pivotal role in driving Bitcoin’s price up by 50% since the ETFs commenced trading.
The spotlight has now shifted to Ethereum, with traders speculating on the likelihood of a spot Ether ETF receiving SEC approval before the end of May. According to data from Polygon-based crypto gambling platform Polymarket, sentiments are divided, with approximately 81% of traders expressing pessimism regarding the approval.
On Polymarket, traders engage in a binary betting system, purchasing shares representing their predictions on the ETF’s fate. Presently, the market favors the “No” option, with shares priced at $0.81, indicating a higher skepticism towards approval. In contrast, “Yes” shares are valued at $0.19, reflecting fewer believers in the likelihood of an Ether ETF approval before the deadline.
The betting frenzy has attracted substantial sums, with over $2.4 million wagered on the outcome. The top holders of shares in both the “Yes” and “No” categories have significant stakes, indicating the seriousness of their convictions.
Despite the speculative nature of these bets, past instances have demonstrated their relevance in predicting regulatory outcomes. Earlier in January, similar bets were placed on Bitcoin ETF approvals, with the eventual green light from the SEC validating traders’ predictions. Grayscale, a prominent investment management company, remains optimistic about the prospects of Ether ETF approvals.
Craig Salm, Grayscale’s Chief Legal Officer, emphasized that the SEC’s level of engagement with applicants may not necessarily indicate the likelihood of approval. This sentiment underscores the nuanced dynamics at play in regulatory decision-making processes.
