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Will Bitcoin Be A Safe Haven in The Trade War Recession?

  • Bitcoin is being eyed as a safe haven asset amid Trump’s escalating trade war tensions.
  • The U.S. government holds 200,000 BTC, aiming to secure more under budget-neutral plans.
  • With rising recession fears, Bitcoin’s role as “digital gold” faces a real-world test.

Rising fears of a recession triggered by escalating trade tensions have investors searching for safe havens. Amidst this, Bitcoin has emerged as a potential digital alternative to traditional hedges like gold.

As President Trump’s aggressive tariff policies take shape, financial analysts are drawing concerning parallels to the economic conditions that preceded the devastating 1929 crash and the disastrous Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act.

Despite these concerns, President Trump remains confident in his economic strategy. “All I know is this: we’re going to take in hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs and we’re going to become so rich,” Trump stated emphatically on Fox News. “We’re going to have jobs. We’re going to have open factories. It’s going to be great.”

Today, as trade war threats loom and recession indicators flash warning signs, the question becomes whether Bitcoin could fulfill a similar role to gold in the modern digital economy. While traditional safe haven assets like precious metals have centuries of historical precedent, Bitcoin’s relatively short existence makes its behavior during a severe economic downturn largely theoretical.

The Trump administration has been simultaneously developing its cryptocurrency strategy. White House A.I. & Crypto Czar David Sacks has also recently provided insight into the government’s approach to Bitcoin holdings. During a recent interview, Sacks detailed the differences between two initiatives established by executive order: the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and the Digital Assets Stockpile.

“Bitcoin is special,” Sacks explained when discussing the government’s focus on the original cryptocurrency. “It’s the only one that doesn’t have an issuer. It’s very decentralized. In crypto, they call this the immaculate conception. We don’t really know how it got here. It’s almost mystical.”

Related: Bitcoin Plunges to $82,000: Will It Rebound or Drop Further?

According to Sacks, the U.S. government currently holds approximately 200,000 Bitcoin on its federal balance sheet. However, he acknowledged that “the truth is that nobody knows because we’ve never done a proper audit.” The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve functions as “a digital Fort Knox for digital gold,” where Bitcoin will be stored securely with a mandate never to sell.

The executive order also outlines measures to expand government Bitcoin holdings, granting the Secretaries of Treasury and Commerce the authority to devise budget-neutral strategies for acquiring more Bitcoin. As recession concerns grow due to escalating trade tensions, Bitcoin’s performance during the coming economic uncertainty will be closely watched. 

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