21 April, 2024

Bitcoin Options Expiry Looms Amid Regulatory Hurdles

20 Jul, 2023

27 Oct, 2023

Bitcoin’s (BTC) upcoming options expiry on Friday, July 21, may solidify the cryptocurrency’s resistance at $30,000, potentially giving bears a dominant position. This comes in light of recent data indicating that three of the last four BTC options expiries led to significant price shifts.

Crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades came on Twitter and shared that Open Interest (OI) is declining, suggesting that long and short positions have been liquidated multiple times, potentially leading traders to lose confidence.

Despite a 21% rally from June 14 to June 21, Bitcoin’s price has seen strong reactions post the weekly 8:00 am UTC options expiry. Traders are urged to exercise caution ahead of this week’s expiry.

The potential short-term bearish sentiment could be offset by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) ongoing review of spot exchange-traded fund proposals. Though these proposals are in the early stages, they could explain why the $31,000 level has been defended multiple times since late June.

Challenges for the cryptocurrency market continue to mount. Nasdaq halted its crypto custodian service launch due to regulatory uncertainties in the U.S., as confirmed by CEO Adena Friedman on July 19. Additionally, on July 14, cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase ceased its staking services in several U.S. states following a lawsuit from the SEC in June accusing it of operating as an unregistered security broker since 2019.

After a brief surge past $31,000 on July 13 and 14, Bitcoin underwent a correction, settling close to $30,000. A current 0.39 put-to-call ratio highlights the open interest disparity between the $430 million call options and the $170 million put options, suggesting overconfidence for bullish traders.

These crypto developments came amidst soft macroeconomic indicators. China’s Q2 GDP grew by 6.3% YoY, missing the expected 7.3%. Concurrently, U.S. retail sales in June saw a marginal 0.2% increase month-on-month, falling below the anticipated 0.50%.


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