Bitcoin Slips as January $100K Odds Fade on Polymarket Data
- Polymarket predicts January 100K odds at 27% as time and pressure build quickly.
- Bitcoin trades at $92,500 after failing to hold above the mid-$97,000 zone again.
- Macro tariff threats lift havens and add pressure to the token’s price recovery path.
Bitcoin traded lower in mid-January as market data showed fading expectations for a $100,000 breakout before the month-end. Price charts and prediction markets pointed to reduced momentum, rising volatility, and tighter time constraints. On Polymarket, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 in January slid to 27%, even after a 5% daily increase.
The odds curve showed sharp swings earlier in the month, then trended lower as recent sessions unfolded. Traders appeared to reassess near-term upside as days narrowed and resistance levels held. With Bitcoin at $92,500, the gap to six figures remained wide. Can Bitcoin still reach $100,000 before January ends?
Cooling Odds Meet Volatile Price Action
Price weakness aligned with declining prediction odds. On the Bitcoin/U.S. Dollar chart from TradingView, Bitcoin last traded at $92,812.38, down $815.67 or 0.87%, on the day. The chart showed a recent peak near $97,900, followed by a sharp drop that erased multiple sessions of gains. Intraday swings widened as the price failed to hold above the mid-$90,000 range.
The change in social commentary went together with the change in market mood. While some traders indicated the decreasing optimism, others called the situation “fake-out fear opportunities.” Even though there were different responses, the statistics indicated a definite trend. Decreasing chances on Polymarket matched a rejection close to the recent peaks. Both indicators in unison indicated the lessened faith in a sudden January rally.
Prediction markets adjusted as capital flowed away from bullish contracts. The decline did not remove the possibility of a breakout. Still, it showed that more traders were positioned against a six-figure January close. The change tracked price behavior rather than sentiment alone.
Daily Structure Shows Defined Range and Resistance
The daily Bitcoin/USDT chart on Binance indicated a structured but undecided market. At press time, Bitcoin is trading at $92,511, down $1,161, or 1.24%, on the session. The day printed a high of $93,673 and a low of $91,980, confirming a broad range. Volatility expanded without breaking the wider structure.
Source: TradingView
The price remained within an ascending channel, which was drawn after the low of December at approximately $80,026. There were new highs and new lows at each stage, and the upper channel resistance was holding back the price increase. The situation indicated a consolidation phase as opposed to a depletion one since the buyers were supporting the rising part.
Fibonacci retracement levels mapped key zones. Support sat at $86,467 at the 0.236 level and $90,451 at 0.382. The 0.5 midpoint at $93,671 failed to hold during the latest pullback. Above, $96,891 at the 0.618 retracement marked the first breakout test. The 0.786 level at $101,476 aligned closely with the $100,000 area.
Related: Bitcoin’s Fixed Supply Keeps Edge Over Gold, Says Cathie Wood
Macro Pressure Adds to Market Stress
Macro developments added pressure across risk assets. According to Bloomberg, cryptocurrencies fell as haven demand rose following comments from Donald Trump. Trump said he would impose a 10% tariff on goods from eight European countries starting Feb. 1, rising to 25% in June, unless a deal occurred.
The remarks pushed U.S. equity-index futures lower as trading opened Monday. At the same time, gold and silver surged to record levels. European leaders responded with criticism and prepared to halt approval of last year’s trade agreement.
Before that shift, digital assets showed early-year strength. Bitcoin climbed to just under $98,000 on Jan. 14, supported by strong inflows into U.S.-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. The renewed macro uncertainty then interrupted that recovery path, adding another layer of resistance to a January move toward $100,000.
