28 February, 2024



Bitcoin Struggles to Break Resistance, Uncertain Trend Ahead

2 months ago

12 Jan, 2024

  • Bitcoin repeatedly fails to sustain levels above high-timeframe resistance, indicating a challenging market phase.
  • Despite an upward trend in the 4-hour EMAs, Bitcoin faces pivotal resistance around $47,000 to $48,000.
  • Bitcoin’s recent price action suggests potential early distribution stages, with significant selling at higher levels.

Bitcoin’s market dynamics are currently under scrutiny, with several attempts to break above high-timeframe (HTF) resistance proving unsuccessful. The cryptocurrency has been unable to maintain its position above the Point of Control (POC), indicated by the orange line in volume profiles. The price oscillates within a familiar range, following the same volume profile.

Skew, a cryptocurrency trader and analyst, shared an X post providing insights into Bitcoin’s recent market movements:

The 4-hour Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) still indicate an uptrend, but the failure to hold above key resistance levels is concerning. A crucial zone for the trend’s direction lies between $45.6K and $45.3K, which has been staunchly defended in spot markets against numerous attempts to breach HTF resistance. 

At present, the market is witnessing clear signs of absorption around the $47K to $48K range, hinting at the early stages of distribution. Despite this, the overall market structure and trend remain intact. However, reclaiming and holding above $47.1K is essential for the bulls to sustain this trend.

A recent surge saw Bitcoin pushing into the $48K to $49K range, encountering significant spot supply and HTF resistance. However, it failed to sustain these higher levels. The rallies, which cost around $48K, have met with substantial spot selling, often leading to absorption and then distribution.

Coinbase Spot, a leading spot exchange, was instrumental in pricing the recent BTC Spot ETF approval and trading launch, coincidentally marking a high point. This high point saw persistent limit selling into price on rallies and significant absorption of buyers around the $49K mark. Even the bounces are being met with limit selling, particularly on failed attempts to sustain above $47.1K.

Significant rejections at HTF resistance have been observed in the derivatives market, marked by the red boxes. As the white boxes indicate, these rejections coincide with substantial market buying, potentially driven by FOMO. However, these purchases have been absorbed by spot limit selling, leading to a reversion back to the rally’s origin- a worrying sign for bulls.

During the Asian trading session, profit-taking has been noted on Binance and Bitfinex spots. Sizeable limit selling has occurred around the US market close on Coinbase. Given these patterns, it might be prudent for traders to consider de-risking their exposure in the next upward movement, especially during the upcoming US session.

The leading cryptocurrency has displayed a marginal downturn in its price, currently standing at $45,920. This represents a slight 0.40% decrease over the past 24 hours, illustrating a period of uncertainty where bearish and bullish forces are in flux, leading to a sideways trading pattern. Despite this recent dip in value, Bitcoin maintains its dominant position at the top of CoinMarketCap’s rankings, boasting an impressive market capitalization of approximately $899 billion. 

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