- Bitcoin’s Q4 2023 performance shows a significant departure from historical volatility, with potential for a positive November.
- Technical analysis suggests a parabolic surge to $180-$200k before the next halving event but warns of a subsequent bear market.
- Historical data reveals variability in Bitcoin’s Q4 performance, emphasizing the need for a balanced and informed investment approach.
The final quarter of 2023 has Bitcoin riding on a wave of positivity, showcasing an upward trajectory from October through December. This surge marks a stark contrast to the historical data from previous years, which highlighted the cryptocurrency’s inherent volatility. Significantly, investors and analysts have turned their attention to the patterns and trends that define Bitcoin’s performance in the final months of the year.
Josh Olszewicz, a known figure in the crypto space, shared his insights on the X platform (formerly Twitter), highlighting Bitcoin’s performance in October and casting a speculative eye on November. He noted the completion of an optimistic October, coining it ‘Uptober,’ while acknowledging the historical mix of results in November.
Significantly, he pointed out that November 2023 might break the trend, marking the first positive November since 2020. Additionally, he reminded his followers of the FTX turmoil that unfolded on November 11, 2022, underscoring the unpredictable nature of the crypto market.
Furthermore, an analysis of the bar chart showcases the variability in Bitcoin’s performance during Q4 from 2014 to 2023. The data reflects substantial gains in specific years and significant drops in others. For instance, October 2017 witnessed a remarkable 53.5% return, while November 2021 saw a sharp decline of around -18.9%.
However, it’s important to note the consistent positive trends in 2017 and 2021, where Bitcoin demonstrated resilience and growth across all Q4 months. Bitcoin today is priced at $34,419.62, witnessing a slight increase of 0.28% over the past day.
Moreover, Gert van Lagen, another influential voice on social media, provided a technical analysis of Bitcoin from 2009 to 2028 using a symlog scale. He emphasized the potential for a surge if Bitcoin breaks into the green zone after bouncing from a lower trendline. He highlighted past occurrences to substantiate his prediction, suggesting a possible rise to $180-$200k before the next halving event.
1/2 #Bitcoin 2009-2028 on symlog scale.— Gert van Lagen (@GertvanLagen) October 31, 2023
when BTC breaks into the green zone after bouncing from the lower black pitchfan trendline, a parabolic surge follows. I've highlighted the past occurrences in red.
🔜$180-$200k before the halving seems next#sellthehalving pic.twitter.com/qEEgwVUpfP
Van Lagen also delved into the Elliott Wave count, indicating that Bitcoin is currently in the final wave of a long-term bullish phase that began in 2009. Consequently, he warned of a strong bear market to follow, likely coinciding with a recession. By linking the wave count with potential economic conditions, he intimates that once the ongoing impulse wave reaches its culmination, investors should prepare for a turbulent journey through the market.
In Q4, Bitcoin’s volatility and potential are underscored by insights from Olszewicz and Van Lagen, along with historical data. Investors, therefore, should proceed with caution, armed with this valuable knowledge, in the unpredictable but potentially rewarding cryptocurrency landscape. During these critical months, a balanced and informed approach to Bitcoin investment is essential due to the market’s cyclical nature.