Gemini Predictions Opens US Event Contract Trading
- Gemini opened prediction markets nationwide following years of regulatory review.
- CFTC approval allows Gemini Titan to offer fully collateralized event contracts.
- Gemini now competes with Kalshi and Polymarket in regulated US markets nationwide.
Gemini has launched its prediction markets platform for U.S. users after securing approval from the CFTC, expanding its regulated product lineup beyond spot crypto trading. The exchange said Gemini Predictions is available in all U.S. states through its iOS app and website, with Android support planned. The platform allows users to trade event contracts using U.S. dollars.
Gemini confirmed it will charge no trading fees for a limited time. The launch followed regulatory clearance that allowed the company to enter the growing prediction markets sector.
CFTC Approval Opens the Door to New Products
The CFTC approved Gemini Titan as a designated contract market after a review process that began with Gemini’s initial filing in March 2020. Gemini CEO Tyler Winklevoss said the approval marked the beginning of a new chapter for the company. He described the license as a foundation for expanding regulated derivatives offerings.
Gemini President Cameron Winklevoss credited the Trump administration’s regulatory approach for the approval. He said it ended what he described as hostility toward digital assets under the previous administration.
The CFTC also granted Gemini and three other platforms limited relief from certain swap reporting requirements on December 12. The decision applied to fully collateralized event contracts. That relief came one day after Gemini Titan received its DCM license. Acting CFTC Chairman Caroline Pham oversaw the decision, signaling faster regulatory processing, according to the agency notice.
Gemini Predictions Enters a Crowded Market
Gemini Predictions offers binary event contracts based on yes or no outcomes. Examples include bitcoin price targets and potential regulatory penalties involving major technology companies. Gemini said users can trade these contracts using USD balances held in their Gemini Exchange accounts. The company confirmed fee-free trading during the launch period.
The launch places Gemini in direct competition with Kalshi and Polymarket. Polymarket resumed U.S. operations this month after a 2022 ban. Kalshi continues to operate domestically under CFTC oversight, according to prior regulatory disclosures.
Gemini enters with advantages that include a Nasdaq listing, a large retail customer base, and regulatory approvals obtained over several years, according to the company statement. Can regulated prediction markets reshape how Americans assess political and financial outcomes?
Related: Gemini Titan Enters Prediction Markets With CFTC Approval
Expansion Follows Resolution of Regulatory Disputes
Gemini resolved its legal disputes with the Securities and Exchange Commission after listing on Nasdaq in September, according to company disclosures. Since then, the exchange has expanded its offerings. New products include tokenized stocks and plans to add crypto futures, options, and perpetual contracts for U.S. users.
Gemini co-founders said prediction markets could rival traditional capital markets in scale. Cameron Winklevoss made the statement in the Gemini Space Station blog post. Citizens Bank analysts said adoption of prediction markets has remained mostly retail-driven so far. They expect institutional participation as liquidity grows and spreads tighten.
The analysts cited deeper market maker involvement as a key factor for broader adoption, according to the Monday report. Decentralized platforms such as Polymarket continue to operate offshore and remain unavailable to most U.S. users under current regulations, according to regulatory filings. Retail sentiment data from Stockwits showed bearish sentiment around Kalshi and neutral sentiment around Polymarket at the time of reporting.
