- Bitcoin’s price drop from $86,000 to $75,000 signals a potential shift in its market.
- Hayes believes Bitcoin’s decoupling from Nasdaq suggests it may become more independent.
- Increased Bitcoin futures open interest shows rising confidence among investors.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, recently highlighted Bitcoin’s (BTC) growing detachment from traditional markets, especially the Nasdaq. His analysis points to a notable divergence between Bitcoin’s price and the Nasdaq index, beginning in March 2025. Within just a few days, the price of Bitcoin fell drastically by 13.58% to less than $75,000 from $86,000. At the time of Hayes’ analysis, Bitcoin was valued at $84,187, showing signs of adjustment following its prior peak.
Source: X
Hayes suggests that Bitcoin holders, or HODLers, must adapt to this new market dynamic. According to him, “learning to love tariffs” might be the key, alluding to the broader global economic shifts that include changes in trade policies and monetary systems.
He believes Bitcoin’s decoupling from the Nasdaq could indicate that Bitcoin is evolving into a leading indicator of fiat liquidity, unaffected by the traditional market forces. The current volatility in Bitcoin’s price signals that liquidity effects may disrupt economic systems, but this could ultimately benefit it in the long term.
U.S. Economic Imbalances and Global Shifts
It was also on April 4, 2025, that Hayes talked about deepening the gap between U.S. current and financial accounts. The graph he presented showed that the account balance was usually deficit and it stood at approximately $1.3 trillion. Conversely, the financial account balance has recently been above $1 trillion, thus illustrating growing economic imbalance. Hayes suggests that these imbalances will eventually be corrected, likely with the aid of “printed money.” This, he believes, will be advantageous for Bitcoin.
In this analysis, Hayes links these economic transitions to a decline in the strength of the US dollar, stating that foreign capital inflows especially from the technology sector have begun to drive a market transition. Hayes anticipates that such global phenomena, particularly the current economic disequilibrium, will ultimately lend support to Bitcoin and gold prices in the medium term.
Related: Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Bottom at $70K Before Rebound
Bitcoin Futures Open Interest and Market Sentiment
The Coinglass chart is consistent with Hayes’ perspective, mapping the relationship between the price of Bitcoin and the open interest of futures from October 2024 to March 2025. Bitcoin futures open interest started off near $10 billion and ran up together with Bitcoin, which in February 2025 reached well over $100,000. Open interest reached almost $100 billion by March 2025, an indication of increasing participation in the market and bullish sentiment.
Source: Coinglass
With open interest commanding a positive trend, this is a vote of confidence in Bitcoin, with more and more investors opting for Bitcoin futures. This affirms Hayes’ past predictions- that the price of Bitcoin will be subject to more volatility, especially in context with the unfolding macroeconomic landscape. Thus, with changing global economies, Bitcoin can further decouple away from rigid traditional markets and work its way towards being a more independent asset class.
