- Historical patterns suggest Bitcoin may rally before the halving.
- The possibility of a ‘black swan’ event looms over Bitcoin’s path.
- Analyst ‘Plan B’ predicts a bullish future for Bitcoin’s price.
Recently, a technical analyst known as “Titan of Crypto” took to Twitter to share insights on Bitcoin’s upcoming halving event, highlighting the historical patterns leading up to this crucial point in Bitcoin’s lifecycle. Bitcoin halving events have always been met with anticipation and excitement in the crypto community.
As “Titan of Crypto” noted, there have been three previous Bitcoin halvings, each followed by distinct price movements. In 2012 and 2016, Bitcoin experienced significant rallies leading up to the halving, with prices surging.
#Bitcoin Rally approaching the Halving. 📈
Yes we only had 3 occurrences to rely on and past performance is not guarantee of future results.
Yet as we have 7 months left before the next halving I can't help but compare the previous #BTC price action approaching past Halvings.… pic.twitter.com/cTjX8FXi4w
— Titan of Crypto (@Washigorira) September 19, 2023
However, the 2019/2020 halving was marred by the unexpected black swan event of the COVID-19 pandemic, causing temporary turbulence in the market before a resumption of the upward trajectory. One of the intriguing aspects of the “Titan of Crypto” analysis is the consideration of unexpected events, commonly referred to as black swans. While black swan events, by their nature, are unpredictable, there seems to be a growing sentiment among investors that another unforeseen disruption may occur during this halving cycle, providing an opportunity to buy Bitcoin at lower prices.
However, as the analyst aptly pointed out, the paradox is that it becomes less unexpected when most investors start expecting a black swan event. This shift in sentiment raises speculation about whether such an event will likely happen this time.
Contrary to the expectation of a black swan event, Titan of Crypto leans toward a more optimistic outlook for Bitcoin’s price leading up to the halving. In this view, the worst-case scenario involves Bitcoin’s price maintaining a range, while the best-case scenario sees a steady rise as the halving approaches.
In addition to the analyst’s findings, another prominent researcher, Plan B, has made bold predictions about Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Plan B’s January 12 prediction of a $15.5k bottom in November 2022 has already been surpassed, with Bitcoin currently trading at $27,227.60. The analyst foresees Bitcoin reaching over $32k by 2024, halving and surging beyond $100k during the 2025 bull market.
