Portugal Gives Polymarket 48 Hours to Leave Over Vote Bets
- Portugal forced Polymarket out after the election markets drew over 100 million euros
- Regulators stated that political betting breaks Portuguese law and lacks a licence.
- The case emphasises on global pressure as more countries restrict prediction markets.
Portugal’s gambling regulator has ordered blockchain-based prediction market Polymarket to leave the country within 48 hours following a sharp rise in betting activity linked to Sunday’s presidential election. The decision came after authorities said the platform operated without a licence and offered illegal political betting services under Portuguese law.
The regulator, Serviço de Regulação e Inspeção de Jogos (SRIJ), said wagers on the Jan. 18 presidential vote exceeded €103 million, according to Rádio Renascença. Officials stated that Polymarket did not hold authorization to provide betting services in Portugal and therefore operated outside the legal framework.
Under Portugal’s 2015 online gambling law, licensed operators may only offer sports betting, casino games, and horse racing. The law explicitly bans betting on political events and other real-world outcomes, placing Polymarket’s core offerings outside permitted activity.
Election Betting Triggers Regulatory Action
SRIJ said it became aware of Polymarket only recently, after unusually high volumes appeared around the presidential election. Reports showed more than €4 million flowed into election markets in the hours before official results became public.
Total trading volume across the main presidential market later exceeded €110 million. Regulators flagged the timing of the bets as a concern, since some wagers appeared to precede public disclosure of results.
Rádio Renascença reported that authorities questioned whether some participants accessed exit polls or other non-public information. That concern intensified scrutiny of the platform’s operations inside Portugal.
SRIJ stated that the website lacked authorization to offer betting services in the country. The regulator added that national law prohibits betting on political events, whether domestic or international.
Platform Access and Broader Market Concerns
Polymarket remained accessible in Portugal following the Jan. 16 notice. Regulators said they may instruct internet service providers to block access if the platform fails to comply with the order.
Other prediction markets, including Kalshi, Myriad, and Limitless, also remained accessible at the time of reporting. Authorities did not announce immediate action against those platforms.
Polymarket allows users to buy shares on outcomes tied to politics, sports, and other real-world events. The model enables traders to profit if their chosen outcome proves correct.
SRIJ warned that it oversees only licensed operators. The regulator stated that it cannot guarantee that Portuguese users will recover funds once access to an illegal platform is blocked.
Related: Polymarket Projects 27% Probability for Bitcoin to Reach $100K
Global Pressure Builds on Polymarket
Polymarket, founded in 2020, now faces restrictions in more than 30 countries. Those jurisdictions include Singapore, Russia, Belgium, Italy, and Ukraine. Some countries have blacklisted the platform entirely. Others, such as France, allow local users to view markets but block trading functions.
Portugal’s action follows similar concerns raised elsewhere. In one case, three wallets reportedly earned more than $630,000 by betting on the removal of Nicolás Maduro before his arrest became public. Comparable patterns also appeared in entertainment markets. On Polymarket, users placed 27 bets on Golden Globe Award outcomes, with 26 proving correct.
In the United States, regulators have also increased scrutiny. Tennessee issued a cease-and-desist order against Polymarket earlier this month, according to prior reports. Kalshi faced a similar order but later secured a temporary injunction against Tennessee’s action on sports-related contracts.
As European regulators assess these cases, one question remains central: how should decentralized prediction markets fit within national gambling laws designed long before blockchain-based platforms existed?
