23 April, 2024



September Market Outlook: Bitcoin’s Path Amidst Uncertainty

02 Sep, 2023

21 Nov, 2023

  • Bitcoin faces September with -11.2% August losses, as crypto enthusiasts eagerly await an ETF decision amidst a climate of uncertainty.
  • The SEC’s potential ETF delay to late 2023 triggers market turbulence, raising concerns about Bitcoin’s supply overhang and the waning ETF enthusiasm.
  • Key macroeconomic events in mid-September, CPI data, and the FOMC meeting hold the power to shape Bitcoin’s path amid ongoing market unpredictability.

As August fades away, the cryptocurrency community now directs its focus toward the enigmatic landscape of September. Bitcoin endured a challenging month, suffering a -11.2 % decline, while numerous altcoins weathered even more severe setbacks, generating a mix of anticipation and apprehension for the forthcoming weeks. Amidst this atmosphere of uncertainty, esteemed crypto analyst Miles Deutscher turned to Twitter, sharing valuable insights into the market’s future.

According to Deutscher, September has consistently ranked as Bitcoin’s poorest-performing month, delivering an average return of -7%. Now, the crypto world is collectively holding its breath, with all eyes on potential game-changing catalysts, primarily centered around the eagerly anticipated approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF.

The SEC appears poised to continue delaying its definitive decision on the spot Bitcoin ETF, potentially pushing it to late 2023 or early Q4, with an initial deadline set for January 10th for Ark. This delay tactic, some argue, is merely postponing the inevitable. Any significant developments during this waiting period could significantly impact market dynamics and prices, leading to uncertainty.

The enthusiasm surrounding the Grayscale victory in July has fizzled out, leaving an exhausted ETF bid behind. This exhaustion could become problematic when faced with an impending supply overhang in Q4, particularly concerning Bitcoin. Various factors contribute to this supply surge, including the US Government’s handling of Silk Road Bitcoin, the Mt. Gox Bitcoin stash, and FTX’s potential release of approximately $500 million of major cryptocurrencies.

In the absence of renewed market interest, most likely through an ETF development, caution prevails. Yet, it’s not all gloom and doom. Buyers may enter the market at specific price levels, with the ETF trade remaining statistically more probable after the Grayscale victory. The critical question is whether substantial interest will be at levels like $25,000 (the original ETF pump floor), $23,000, or even lower. The approval timeline’s extension could significantly influence this figure.

Amidst the current uncertainties, other factors, such as changes in the macroeconomic environment, could have an impact. On September 13, the upcoming release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report holds particular significance, given the recent uptick, the first in 12 months, prompting observers to assess whether this shift is an isolated occurrence or the start of a broader trend.

Subsequently, the September 20th Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled to follow the backdrop of escalating CPI figures. While there is a prevailing market expectation of a halt in interest rate hikes, with a 93% probability, all attention will be focused on Jerome Powell’s statements and forward-looking perspective. These events would help determine the inflation trend and the Federal Reserve’s response, affecting market sentiment and Bitcoin’s trajectory.

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