Tether Solvency Fears Return As CoinShares Cites Surplus

• CoinShares cites a $6.78B surplus in Tether’s latest attestation figures, dated Sept. 30.
• A 30% drop in Bitcoin and gold could erase USDT’s equity buffer in theory, Hayes warned.
• Past fear spikes often fade as USDT liquidity holds on exchanges and markets stabilize.

Tether is again facing a familiar round of fear headlines, driven by market commentary and rating scrutiny. The spark this week came from Arthur Hayes, who warned about reserve volatility, and a CoinShares response that pointed to published figures. The debate follows an old pattern in crypto. Panic rises fast, redemption talk spreads faster, and liquidity becomes the main test across venues.

CoinShares laid out its view in a Dec. 5 research note written by James Butterfill. He said the latest solvency concerns look misplaced when compared with Tether’s most recent published attestation. Tether’s own report states reserves of $181,223,149,214 and liabilities of $174,445,364,503 as of Sept. 30, 2025. It also states a reserve surplus of $6,777,784,711 on those figures. 

Volatility Shock Test for Tether Reserves

Hayes focused on volatility risk inside the reserve mix rather than the headline surplus. He argued that as exposure to Bitcoin and gold rises, a sharp drawdown in those assets could compress the buffer that sits above liabilities. 

He described a 30% decline as a scenario that could, in theory, wipe out the equity cushion and make USDT “theoretically insolvent.” CoinShares responded by pointing back to the size of the surplus and the scale of reported profits.

A research-driven review of prior Tether fear cycles shows a repeating pattern across market shocks. Stress events often start with broad risk-off moves, followed by doubts about backing and peg mechanics. 

During the 2022 stablecoin crisis, USDT traded below $1 at points as redemption demand climbed, but coverage of that period also noted that the market later stabilized. That history matters because exchange-level price dislocations could reflect thin liquidity and fast flows, even when settlement pathways remain open.

The 2021–2022 period also had a more specific concern: asset quality and limited clarity about reserves. Commercial paper exposure was a central issue in those years, and it drove a large share of the skepticism. 

Tether later said it reduced commercial paper to zero by October 2022, which removed one of the most criticized categories from the backing mix. That shift narrowed the scope of what fear cycles could credibly target today.

Recent disclosures emphasize a reserve base dominated by U.S. Treasuries and a larger stated surplus than in earlier periods. Tether’s Q3 2025 attestation states that reported profit for Q1 through Q3 2025 exceeded $10 billion. 

Profits, Ratings Pressure, and Ardoino’s Rebuttal

CoinShares cited that profitability as part of its argument that the current solvency narrative does not match the published position. These claims come from the issuer’s own reporting and should be read as such, but they are the concrete figures available in the public record. 

S&P Global downgraded its assessment of USDT to the lowest level on its scale, citing growing exposure to higher-risk assets and limited transparency around custodians, counterparties, and banking providers. 

Related: S&P Downgrades Tether, CEO Stands Firm on USDT’s Future

S&P also noted USDT’s price stability during turbulent periods, while saying disclosure limits and risk assets drove the downgrade. This is where the current cycle differs in tone, even if the market behavior looks familiar. 

Tether’s CEO, Paolo Ardoino, has publicly pushed back on the downgrade in industry coverage. Reports described him characterizing the criticism as “Tether FUD” and pointing back to the company’s attestation disclosures in defense of its reserve position. 

That response fits a long-running pattern in Tether coverage, where criticism is met with published reserve figures rather than a full audit. The disagreement, therefore, remains partly about transparency standards, not only about totals.

Putting the pieces together supports a limited, research-led read of the moment. The latest public attestation still reports a surplus over liabilities. 

The central pressure narrative is again tied to broader market volatility and perception shocks. On the cited data alone, today’s concerns appear cyclical rather than structural, while the transparency debate remains unresolved.