25 February, 2024



VanEck Predicts a Smooth Bitcoin Halving in 2024 Q1; Bitcoin Will See ATH in Q4

3 months ago

08 Dec, 2023

  • VanEck reveals many predictions about significant developments that are likely to happen in the cryptocurrency market in 2024.
  • The predictions cover many topics, from the U.S. recession and the dominance of ETH layer 2 to DeFi’s reconciliation with KYC regulations. 
  • US recession to arrive in the first half of 2024, and in Q1 more than $2.4 billion to flow into Bitcoin ETFs.

Investment Manager VanEck predicted that the long-awaited US recession would arrive in the first half of 2024. In times of recession, investors usually look for safe havens to avoid the economic downturn. There is a possibility for Bitcoin to benefit from the recession due to its special status as a ‘digital gold’ and the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs. VanEck expects more than $2.4 billion to flow into the newly approved Bitcoin ETFs in Q1,2024, and because of this, the possibility of Bitcoin falling below $30,000 is low.

The report expects the 4th Bitcoin halving in April 2024 to proceed smoothly with little impact due to the market’s increasing maturity and understanding of Bitcoin’s nature. Since the coin issuance has been cut in half, unprofitable miners will probably exit, and low-cost miners will take over their market share. A surge usually follows the Bitcoin halving event, as it generates demand for the coin. This will probably be an opportunistic moment for investors, especially for those who are betting on Bitcoin’s long-term value.

VanEck predicted that in the second half of 2024, Bitcoin will probably have a significant increase in prices and may reach an all-time high in Q4, specifically on Nov 9, which is exactly three years since the last ATH. VanEck associates the price increase with global election activities and suggests that if the price of BTC touches $100,000 by December, Satoshi Nakamoto may acquire Time Magazine’s “Man of the Year” title.

VanEck predicted that Ethereum may not flip Bitcoin but can significantly outperform major tech stocks. As the backbone of DeFi and NFTs and having upgrades like EIP-4844, Ethereum will most likely enhance its scalability and network efficiency to attract more investors to its ecosystem while other smart contract platforms are posing challenges.

In addition, the Execution of EIP-4844 in Ethereum’s layer two chains will likely improve scalability and reduce transaction fees. Also, NFTs will probably have a resurgence and can approach all-time highs. Speculators expect Ethereum to lead NFT collections and Bitcoin to gain more ground through the Ordinals protocol.

Further, VanEck predicted that Binance would lose the top position in centralized exchange spot trading due to the settlement of $4.3 billion and the loss of Changpeng Zhao. Rivals like Coinbase, OKX, Bybit, and Bitget are expected to vie for the top position.

The market cap of stablecoin will reach a record high of $200 billion due to the increase in yield-bearing stablecoins and the launch of MiCA-regulated stablecoins in Europe. It is also likely that USDC will increase its market share due to potential regulatory actions against USDT.

The report cited that decentralized exchanges (DEX) are expected to hit record highs in spot trading market share driven by high throughput chains like Solana. VanEck envisions remittances to boost blockchain usage significantly. Bitcoin Staking on the lightning network allows Bitcoin holders to explore various staking opportunities. 

A breakthrough will likely happen in blockchain gaming, with more than 1 million daily active players. Platforms like Immutable X with games like Guild of Guardians and IIIuvium to reach fame.

VanEck forecasts Solana will become one of the top 3 blockchains by market cap, TVL(Total Value Locket), and users. Solana will join the Spot ETF race and surpass Chainlink TVS(Total Value Secured). Also, by highly adopting DePin (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure) networks such as Helium and Hivemapper will result in cost-effective alternatives to traditional infrastructures.

Finally, VanEck envisions adopting new accounting standards like FASB guidelines, which will increase corporate crypto holdings with Coinbase reporting Layer 2 blockchain revenues. It is expected that the KYC-enabled DeFi apps led by Uniswap will surpass non-KYC applications in attracting institutional volume and increasing token appreciation. 

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