XLM Price Prediction: Can Stellar Hit $1 in This Bull Cycle?

• Stellar’s price soared 140% from June lows, sparking renewed optimism across the market.
• Historical cycles saw rallies of 1,280% in 2017 and 566% in 2020, both after long consolidations.
• Fibonacci targets for this cycle are set at $0.63, $0.79, $0.87, and $0.98 if the trend continues.

Stellar’s XLM token is lighting up the crypto charts this month, staging a powerful comeback with a 140% surge from its recent lows. The journey began quietly in mid-June, with XLM slipping to $0.216, its lowest point this quarter.

After a few days of quiet consolidation near $0.2601, a breakout on July 9th kicked off a five-day bullish sprint, rocketing the token into the $0.50–$0.53 resistance zone — a level not revisited since the year’s start.

Now, XLM has cooled slightly to trade around $0.4617, with $0.42 emerging as a new support line — a healthy pause after the climb. Even with the slight pullback, the token still boasts a 77% gain this month, backed by strong fundamentals: a $14.4 billion market cap and $1.48 billion in 24-hour volume.

The broader crypto market is also flashing green, and it’s clear that both retail traders and institutions are circling back to Stellar with renewed interest. Yet the real dollar question remains: Can XLM smash through that stubborn resistance and soar even higher?

History Repeats: XLM Follows Familiar Bullish Blueprint

According to the token’s monthly analysis, every three years, XLM has followed a strikingly similar pattern: quiet accumulation, a sharp breakout, and a strong rally. This recurring rhythm has shown up not once, but twice before—first in late 2017 and again in late 2020.

Both times, it led to massive gains. In 2017, XLM soared over 1,280% to hit $0.93. Then in 2020, it rallied another 566% to reach $0.79. Now, after forming another long accumulation base, the latest cycle kicked off in late 2024, and it’s already delivered a 297% gain, peaking at $0.63.

What’s remarkable is how these cycles all follow the same blueprint: the price compresses within a triangle, breaks past descending resistance, and accelerates upward in vertical fashion. That same structure is forming again—and this time, XLM has pushed above the long-term resistance line that capped previous highs, albeit this breakout appears to have occurred slightly earlier than in past cycles.

If history repeats, the first primary target sits at $0.63—the 100% Fibonacci extension. But there’s more room above. Higher targets include $0.79 (127.2%), $0.87 (141.4%), and potentially $0.98 at the 161.8% mark. In a stronger bullish scenario, the token could surge past the $1 mark, especially if it maintains momentum after breaching the multi-year resistance trendline.

Meanwhile, support has held firm near $0.20, right around the 23.6% Fibonacci level. This area acted as the launchpad for previous rallies, reinforcing its role as a strong base in the current cycle.

While no projection is guaranteed, the historical rhythm in Stellar’s monthly chart is hard to ignore. It’s a classic case of history trying to repeat —and this time, the market may be listening.

XLM On-Chain Trends Support Price Surge

On-chain momentum is also surging, adding credence to XLM’s breakout story. First, the XLM Open Interest (OI) chart reveals a major shift. Futures OI reached a sharp peak in early July, marking a new all-time high of approximately 520 million. The spike coincides with the newly formed price breakout and is indicative of increased trader involvement and levered positioning relative to upside continuation.

Historically, such a surge in Open Interest during price rallies has often preceded heightened volatility, typically aligning with the prevailing trend, which in this case is bullish. The funding rate information reaffirms this bullish bias. After weeks of choppy, largely negative or neutral funding, XLM’s OI-weighted funding rate flipped positive in July and has held steadily above zero since.

The transition indicates that longs are taking control, and traders are ready to pay premiums to hold bullish positions. As the price surged past 0.45, it was evident that the market mood had shifted to confidence.

The liquidation data provides another layer of bullish confidence. A total of 448.98K of positions were liquidated, and 357.09K of them were short positions, flagging a major bear squeeze. This sharp disparity shows that traders betting against XLM are getting caught on the wrong side as bullish momentum intensifies.

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XLM Momentum Builds as Indicators Turn Bullish

XLM’s monthly chart reveals that the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) line (0.053579) is above the signal line (0.036396), indicating a bullish momentum. Adding more convincing power to the fact that the bulls have taken over, the histogram bars have turned positive and are moving upwards, indicating a rising trend in the purchase trend. 

The RSI (Relative Strength Index), which complements the MACD, is also at a bullish level of 64.29—still not in the overbought zone of 70. This suggests that XLM has room to grow before facing major resistance due to overbought conditions. RSI has also crossed its midline and is moving towards the upper side, indicating rising buying pressure.

Conclusion

Stellar (XLM) is flashing multiple bullish signals across both technical and on-chain indicators. After gaining 140% from recent lows, breaking through long-term resistance, and showing a history of multi-year rallies, the case for XLM’s relative strength is now more compelling than ever.

The MACD bullish momentum and rising RSI suggest growing strength in price momentum, while on-chain data—such as surging open interest, positive funding rates, and dominant short liquidations—confirms increasing trader confidence and market participation.

While price corrections and volatility are inevitable, the combination of structural, technical, and sentiment-driven support puts XLM in a favorable position for a sustained rally.

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