Bitcoin Eyes $300K Surge as Past Cycles Signal a 3x Rebound
- Bitcoin price rally mirrors the 2019 rebound with the potential to hit $300K.
- Exchange outflows exceed $105M, signaling strong accumulation and reduced market supply.
- RSI nears the neutral zone, indicating buyers are steadily regaining control of BTC’s momentum.
Bitcoin watchers are turning to history for clues as the United States ends its latest government shutdown. The move brings back memories of early 2019, when the market staged one of its strongest comebacks in years.
Back then, Bitcoin jumped nearly 290% within six months of the federal government reopening, a surge that took it from roughly $3,400 to about $13,700 by mid-year. This time, the numbers are far larger, but the setup feels familiar.
Bitcoin trades close to $104k, and analysts tracking cyclical trends say a repeat of that 2019 pattern could lift the token beyond $300k. The comparison stems from proportional data showing similar recovery phases after periods of policy uncertainty.
On the other hand, the current U.S. political breakthrough came after the Senate voted 60–40 to approve funding that restored federal operations. The decision halted layoffs and revived investor confidence. Historical records show that such moments of political resolution have previously coincided with renewed appetite for risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Technical Signs Back the Bullish Tone
BTC’s charts tell a story of their own. After recently dipping to the $99k–$98k range, last touched in late June, Bitcoin formed a double-bottom structure, a shape traders read as a reversal signal.
From there, the token rebounded and briefly tested the $107k resistance line, which temporarily halted further movement before easing back to the $104k zone. The pullback is mild, roughly one percent, but the setup remains constructive.
Source: TradingView
However, the key $107k zone aligns with a Murrey Math “pivot reverse” area, a structure known to block price advances before strong rallies. A clear move above that line could open the path toward $110k–$111k, the region that previously triggered heavy supply pressure.
Momentum gauges back the same view. The Relative Strength Index sits near 43, rising from oversold conditions. A push past the neutral 50 mark would confirm that buyers are regaining control. Until then, the market stays in a delicate balance, neither overheated nor exhausted.
Exchange Outflows Strengthen the Bull Case
On-chain flows add another layer to the narrative. Data from CoinGlass shows more than $105 million in Bitcoin leaving exchanges in recent sessions. When coins move off trading platforms and into cold wallets, it usually signals accumulation rather than profit-taking. In other words, holders are locking their assets away instead of preparing to sell.
Source: CoinGlass
Less Bitcoin on exchanges tightens available supply, a dynamic that can amplify price gains once demand accelerates. Supporting that view, whale activity has increased notably.
Blockchain trackers recorded one transfer of 1,043 BTC, about $109.4 million, from Kraken to a private wallet. Another transfer of 871 BTC, worth roughly $91.7 million, moved from Binance to an unknown address.
These large moves are often linked to institutional desks or long-term investors consolidating positions. The timing, just as political stability returns, suggests a coordinated sentiment shift rather than coincidence.
Related: Michael Saylor Declares Bitcoin ‘On Sale’ After Price Falls Below $100K
Can Bitcoin Mirror Its 2019 Growth Curve?
The chart parallels, exchange flows, and renewed optimism resemble the setup from six years ago, though the scale is far greater now. If Bitcoin can clear the $107k and $111k barriers with volume, the market could be witnessing the early stages of another major leg higher.
A rally of the same magnitude seen in 2019 would project the asset toward the $300,000 region, an outcome that would reshape long-term valuation models. For now, the data leans bullish, not speculative. Price structure, on-chain movement, and investor behavior all point to confidence quietly building beneath the surface.
