Arthur Hayes Predicts Perpetual Futures Will Reshape Markets
- Hayes says perpetual futures will pull equity price discovery away from stock exchanges.
- He expects perpetuals to gain significant adoption as U.S. and Asian markets shift.
- Hayes argues that perpetuals offer efficiency and access that traditional futures could not match.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, is pushing a clear message about the future of markets. He says perpetual futures, the contract style created inside the digital asset world, would pull equity price discovery away from traditional stock exchanges. Hayes argues that these instruments trade nonstop, consolidate liquidity, and provide a cost-efficient structure that fits modern markets. His view positions perpetuals as the next stage in the evolution of global derivatives.
In a report, Hayes highlighted that U.S. and Asian exchanges are already preparing for this shift. He points to plans from CBOE and SGX to introduce perpetual-style products by the end of 2025. He describes the moment as a turning point for conventional finance. Hayes warns that legacy exchanges face shrinking liquidity if they do not adjust to this structure.
Perpetuals Transformed Crypto Market Structure
He explains why perpetuals changed crypto trading. BitMEX created a contract with no expiration date that tracks spot prices through a funding mechanism. This design merged liquidity into one market and removed the need to roll futures. Traders gained constant access to leverage and exposure. Hayes says this model became the backbone of crypto derivatives.
He adds that perpetual markets rely on socialized loss systems and insurance funds. These systems limit responsibility to the margin posted by each trader. They also reduce counterparty risk during sudden price moves. Hayes says this structure offers efficiency that traditional futures cannot match under current rules. He views it as a key reason perpetuals gained traction among retail users.
Hayes points to recent activity in decentralized finance. He highlights Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 framework, which allowed a firm identified as XYZ to list a Nasdaq 100 perpetual. He says the product now records meaningful daily volume.
Hayes expects equity perpetuals to become widely used in 2026. He predicts that centralized and decentralized platforms would compete to list major equity indexes.
Regulatory Shifts Accelerate Perpetual Adoption
Hayes also notes recent regulatory shifts in the United States. After years of strict enforcement following the FTX collapse, he says the environment changed in 2025. He attributes the shift to a new federal approach that allows limited testing of new derivatives.
Hayes believes this development encouraged global regulators to follow similar policies. He says this change gave exchanges like SGX confidence to explore perpetual offerings.
He projects that perpetuals tied to major U.S. benchmarks would dominate the market later this decade. He mentions indexes such as the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100.
Related: Hyperliquid to Activate HIP-3 to Enable Open Perp Market Creation
Hayes argues that traditional clearinghouses face structural limits, including small guarantee pools, restricted leverage for retail users, and fixed operating hours. He says these factors would push traders toward platforms that operate without time boundaries.
He claims perpetuals let traders post smaller amounts of collateral while still getting exposure. Hayes says this appeals to users who prefer not to leave large deposits on traditional platforms after years of hacks and collapses across the sector. He views the model as a more flexible option for modern markets.
Hayes continues to attract attention for his own trading activity. Recent on-chain data shows him selling positions in ETH, ENA, and ETHFI during a sharp downturn. This occurred after earlier suggestions that he would not reduce his ETH holdings. He also commented on social media about a privacy-focused token that posted strong monthly gains. His remarks followed a period of broad weakness in other altcoins.
