Polymarket Traders Back Hassett as Trump’s Fed Favorite

• Markets back Hassett for Fed chair, linking his selection to faster rate-cut direction.
• Prediction markets show contrasting paths as candidates have differing policy views.
• Fed independence worries rise as Trump pressures the Fed, raising concerns over influence.

Polymarket traders are betting that Kevin Hassett could become the next Federal Reserve chair after President Donald Trump named him as a potential candidate. This places focus on a contest that could influence monetary strategy at a key time as the Federal Open Market Committee prepares for its December meeting. 

Prediction Markets Show Sharp Difference

Polymarket data showed a clear split among traders on who might become the next Fed chair. Hassett led with 72 percent, while Kevin Warsh held 15 percent, Christopher Waller had 6.2 percent, and Scott Bessent followed with 2.9 percent. 

Kalshi’s separate odds also supported the trend, placing Hassett at 74 percent, with Warsh at 15 percent and Christopher Waller at 9 percent. These figures show how traders weighed each candidate’s potential approach to interest rates and liquidity. Hassett’s stance on faster cuts drew the most attention because Trump argued for rates near 1 percent despite inflation remaining above target. 

Hassett’s Record and Market Expectations

Hassett’s proximity to Trump creates a clear link between White House goals and market expectations. He previously led the Council of Economic Advisers and now directs the National Economic Council. Notably, he said last month that he would be cutting rates immediately if he held Jerome Powell’s position.

That comment aligned with Trump’s months-long frustration with Powell, including criticism over slow easing. It also aligned with Trump’s argument that tariffs would not reignite high inflation. 

According to Joseph Gagnon of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Hassett would likely move toward lower rates but not at the pace Trump desires. Gagnon added that Hassett might cite deregulation efforts and the AI boom when arguing that the economy has more room to expand without sharp inflation risks.

Before his White House roles, Hassett spent years at the American Enterprise Institute working on tax and trade issues while also handling academic roles at Columbia Business School and research duties at the Fed. His background forms one of the strongest résumés among the contenders.

Other Contenders Offer Different Paths

Warsh’s support on Polymarket reflects interest in a candidate likely to push balance-sheet reduction more aggressively. His hawkish reputation appeals to traders who believe the Fed should prioritize tighter liquidity. 

Waller drew attention as a continuity candidate defending gradual easing, which some view as more predictable for markets. Bessent stands out as an outsider promising easier liquidity and a more market-driven approach to policy.

Each candidate offers a distinct direction at a time when the Fed must balance a weakening labor market with inflation still above 2 percent. It is predicted that the next chair will face the same pressures regardless of personal preference. However, Bank executives and asset managers told the Treasury they feared Hassett could push indiscriminate cuts that ignore inflation trends. 

Related: Markets Brace as Hassett Emerges as Crypto-Linked Fed Pick

Fed Independence Questions Add Pressure

Concerns about Fed independence intensify because of Trump’s attempt to remove Governor Lisa Cook and shorten Powell’s term. The context around these actions raises valid questions about political influence. However, the Fed’s structure limits unilateral control because policy decisions require majority approval from its 12-member committee, including four Biden-appointed governors.

Hassett’s leading prediction markets show how traders link the Fed race to competing monetary strategies. The contrasting paths offered by Warsh, Waller, and Bessent keep the focus on how the next chair may influence rates, liquidity, and balance-sheet policy. This difference shows how Trump’s pending decision will shape expectations across financial markets in the months ahead.