Polymarket Leads Crypto Protocols in User Retention Rate

• Polymarket retention beats 85% of crypto protocols with its decentralized features.
• Prediction markets sustain persistent user engagement amidst all market conditions.
• Major exchanges expand to build prediction markets to strengthen long-term “user activity.”

Crypto platforms continue to attract waves of new users, especially during active market periods, yet long-term engagement remains difficult to sustain. New data from Token Terminal sheds light on how quickly participation drops after the first month. Retention figures compiled by analytics firm Dune with market maker Keyrock followed monthly cohorts of new active users on Polymarket. The analysis tracked whether those users returned to trade in the months that followed.

Source: X

The dataset contains a diverse range of 275 projects, from blockchain networks, decentralized finance platforms, and wallets to trading applications. Polymarket, being one of them, was able to hold its ground for more than 85% of protocols in terms of average retention rate. 

The results reveal the rarity of continuous use in the entire crypto ecosystem. In situations where liquidity is dependent on constant participation, poor retention is often a sign of limited depth instead of lasting adoption.

Why Prediction Markets Keep Users Coming Back

Prediction markets differ from many crypto products because activity centers on real-world events rather than price action alone. Markets often track elections, sports results, and scheduled macroeconomic data releases.

Each event follows a clear timeline. Trading opens, probabilities shift, and outcomes eventually resolve. Participants revisit markets to adjust positions, follow developments, or trade new events as older ones close.

Prediction markets contradict yield-based protocols or speculative trading platforms in that they do not rely on continuous incentive programs. Instead, they attract users by external events, which remain significant irrespective of the market’s volatility.

Data from Dune and Keyrock shows this event-driven cycle supports more consistent participation. Users appear more likely to remain active beyond the initial periods of onboarding.

Polymarket’s Design Encourages Repeat Use

Polymarket operates as one of the largest blockchain-based prediction markets. Users trade outcomes using USDC on the Polygon network. Each prediction represents probability rather than price. Traders buy or sell shares based on their beliefs. Conventional crypto exchanges anticipate activity during bullish trends and a subsequent drastic drop in activity. Continuous participation normally diminishes with less volatility.

Polymarket has a unique flow. Market settlements bring in new ones; thus, the platform remains busy without depending on market volatility. Data analysis consoles monitoring Polymarket have noted a constant high level of monthly active users. This activity is consistent with the retention statistics, which indicate ongoing engagement over the years.

Related: Polymarket Traders See Bitcoin Ending 2025 Near $80K

Crypto Firms Expand Into Prediction Markets

The retention gap highlighted by prediction markets has drawn attention from major crypto companies. Several platforms signaled moves into the sector during December. Crypto exchanges Coinbase and Gemini, wallet provider Phantom, and clearing firm Bitnomial Clearinghouse each announced plans tied to prediction markets. The moves point to a broader effort to strengthen user engagement.

Coinbase has planned to launch tokenized equities alongside prediction markets. The report followed posts by tech researcher Jane Manchun Wong referencing alleged website leaks. On 13th December, Bitnomial received approval from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

The approval allows the firm to launch prediction markets and provide clearing services. On Tuesday, Gemini launched an in-house prediction market across all 50 US states. The exchange said it aims to combine crypto trading and prediction markets within a single application.

These developments show how prediction markets are gaining traction in the broader market.  Retention rates and growing adoption indicate their significance in acting as a real-time information system.