Bitcoin Faces Pain in 2025, Yet VanEck Sees 2026 Breakout
- Bitcoin trailed gold and Nasdaq in 2025 as liquidity stayed tight and risk appetite weakened.
- VanEck says currency debasement and liquidity cycles favor Bitcoin’s strength in 2026.
- Bitcoin peaked above $126,000 in 2025, then declined as institutions slowed their exposure.
Bitcoin has disappointed investors in 2025. It trailed gold and the Nasdaq 100 as tight liquidity and weaker risk appetite weighed on prices. Yet VanEck says the underperformance may set the stage for a sharp rebound. The firm argues that widening valuation gaps and returning liquidity could position Bitcoin as a top-performing asset in 2026 after a turbulent market year.
Still, VanEck argues that Bitcoin’s relative underperformance reflects timing rather than a broken thesis, with widening valuation gaps now shaping expectations for a potential rebound next year. At the center of that view stands VanEck, which states that macroeconomic pressures and liquidity cycles could reposition Bitcoin as a leading asset in 2026. Could this dislocation become the catalyst investors have waited for?
Bitcoin Lags in 2025 as Dislocation Widens
According to VanEck, Bitcoin has lagged the Nasdaq 100 by roughly 50% year-to-date, even as investors once expected it to benefit from ongoing currency debasement pressures. David Schassler, head of multi-asset solutions at VanEck, said the gap matters because it creates conditions for mean reversion across asset classes.
“Bitcoin is lagging the Nasdaq 100 Index by roughly 50% year-to-date, and that dislocation is setting it up to be a top performer in 2026,” Schassler said in VanEck’s 2026 outlook. Market conditions explain much of the weakness, with softer risk appetite and constrained liquidity reducing demand across speculative assets during the year.
Even so, Schassler said the broader thesis for Bitcoin remains intact as macro forces continue to build beneath the surface.
Liquidity Cycles and the Case for Scarce Assets
VanEck’s outlook centers on macroeconomic and liquidity cycles rather than short-term price action, with a focus on how markets respond when liquidity conditions shift. Schassler said currency debasement and renewed liquidity have historically triggered sharp responses from Bitcoin during past cycles.
“As debasement ramps, liquidity returns, and BTC historically responds sharply,” he wrote, adding that VanEck has actively increased exposure. “We have been buying.” The firm frames Bitcoin not only as a speculative asset but also as a hedge against currency erosion and financial stress.
Analysts at VanEck have compared Bitcoin to gold, noting that both assets benefit when investors seek scarcity during periods of uncertainty. That thesis rests on expectations that governments will rely more heavily on monetary expansion to fund future liabilities and political ambitions.
Gold Strength and Broader Asset Signals
Schassler expects gold to extend its rally next year, with VanEck projecting a move toward $5,000 per ounce after a strong 2025 performance. “Gold is one of the strongest major assets this year, and we expect that momentum to carry it forward,” he said, noting prices near $4,492 per ounce after a gain exceeding 70%.
At the same time, Bitcoin’s price action has remained volatile after it surged above $126,000 earlier in 2025 before reversing sharply. That pullback dragged the broader crypto market lower as institutional demand fluctuated amid rising interest rates and tighter liquidity conditions.
Related: Bitcoin Hashrate Drops as Miner Stress Builds: VanEck Data
Technical resistance and bearish chart patterns have also limited upside momentum in recent months, according to market observers. Beyond digital assets, Schassler pointed to a quiet bull market in natural resources driven by artificial intelligence, energy transitions, robotics, and re-industrialization.
“These old-world assets are building the foundation for the new world economy,” he said, linking infrastructure demand to broader macro shifts. VanEck’s fixed income team echoed the cautious tone elsewhere, with Fran Rodilosso saying 2026 credit returns may hinge on episodic volatility rather than sustained trends.
Rodilosso added that the U.S. Federal Reserve faces a policy dilemma as labor market weakness collides with resilient growth and persistent inflation.
