Bitcoin’s Fixed Supply Keeps Edge Over Gold, Says Cathie Wood
- Cathie Wood says Bitcoin’s fixed supply keeps its long term investment case intact.
- Gold supply expands with price, while Bitcoin issuance stays mathematically capped.
- Low correlations with stocks and bonds position Bitcoin as a portfolio diversifier.
Bitcoin’s long-term investment case remains intact despite gold’s strong 2025 rally, as per Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood. In Ark Invest’s “2026 Outlook,” Wood explained why Bitcoin’s mathematically capped supply suppoerss its appeal amid rising institutional demand. The analysis details supply mechanics, market data and diversification metrics shaping asset allocation decisions.
Supply Math Separates Bitcoin From Gold
Wood’s outlook is on scarcity mechanics, which she frames as the core difference between Bitcoin and gold. While gold surged about 65% during 2025, Bitcoin fell roughly 6% over the same period. However, Wood linked gold’s 166% rally since October 2022 to global wealth growth rather than inflation pressures.
Notably, she explained that gold supply expands by about 1.8% annually as miners respond to higher prices. As a result, incremental demand can eventually trigger additional production. Wood stated that this response mechanism weakens gold’s scarcity during strong price cycles.
Bitcoin, however, follows a fixed issuance schedule written into its protocol. Wood noted that Bitcoin’s supply growth will average about 0.82% annually for the next two years. Thereafter, issuance will slow to roughly 0.41% per year following the next halving phase.
Because miners cannot accelerate production, Bitcoin’s supply remains inelastic regardless of price signals. According to Wood, this structure amplifies price sensitivity during demand surges. She specifically pointed to the steady money flowing into spot Bitcoin ETFs as a key source of demand.
Shifting from supply to performance, Wood looked at how prices have behaved in the past. She noted that Bitcoin has gained roughly 360% since late 2022, even though new supply is growing more slowly than gold’s. Meanwhile, gold’s supply kept increasing at the same time its price was rising.
Institutional Demand And Market Context
Backing up the supply argument, Wood explained recent market moves in simple terms. She said that as more big institutions buy Bitcoin, its fixed supply matters more. When demand keeps rising but supply cannot increase, prices usually adjust upward instead of new supply coming in.
Matthew Hougan, Bitwise’s chief investment officer, echoed this view. He noted that if institutional buying stays higher than the amount of new Bitcoin created, prices could rise quickly. Wood pointed to the same idea in her report, focusing on long-term structural forces rather than specific price targets.
Wood also commented on gold’s recent strength without downplaying its importance. She noted that gold’s market value compared to global money supply is at levels last seen in the 1930s and 1980s. In the past, those moments marked extremes in how gold was valued.
The report explained that when this ratio stayed high for long periods, it was often followed by strong stock market performance. Wood shared this as historical background, not as a forecast. She stressed that valuation ratios help explain why assets move differently, but they do not promise specific results.
From there, the report moved into how portfolios are built. Wood highlighted that investors now pay more attention to how assets move in relation to each other, not just their individual returns. This framework, she argued, highlights Bitcoin’s distinct behavior relative to traditional instruments.
Related: Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest Adds $19.2M in Block Stock Amid Price Drop
Correlation Data and Allocation Decisions
Ark Invest analyzed weekly returns from January 2020 through early January 2026 to assess diversification effects. Notably, Bitcoin showed a correlation of just 0.14 with gold. By comparison, the S&P 500 and bonds displayed a higher correlation of 0.27.
Bitcoin’s correlation with bonds measured even lower at 0.06, according to Ark’s data. Correlation with the S&P 500 reached 0.28, remaining modest relative to traditional asset pairings. For example, the S&P 500 and REITs correlated at 0.79 during the same period.
Wood stated that low correlations enhance portfolio efficiency by improving returns per unit of risk. She described Bitcoin as a diversification tool rather than a replacement asset. This positioning reflects fiduciary considerations for institutional allocators.
Additionally, Wood reiterated that Bitcoin’s issuance will tighten further after upcoming halving cycles. She noted that supply growth could fall below 1% annually, reinforcing predictability. Gold, by contrast, retains variable supply responses through mining investment.
Beyond digital assets, Wood briefly outlined macro themes shaping her outlook. She described the U.S. economy as positioned for rebound, supported by easing inflation and policy factors. She also cited productivity gains from AI, robotics, blockchain and energy storage technologies.
Meanwhile, Ark Invest’s data connected scarcity, demand, and correlation within a single analytical framework. Wood’s report focused on measurable supply rules, historical returns, and diversification statistics. Those elements collectively framed Bitcoin’s investment profile alongside gold without extending beyond observed data.
