02 March, 2024



Analysis Flags 19.5K BTC Gap Between GBTC Holdings and Off-Chain Disclosures

1 month ago

19 Jan, 2024

  • On-chain data reveals a growing gap between GBTC holdings and off-chain disclosures, indicating pressure on GBTC.
  • Despite GBTC outflows, other ETFs have seen substantial inflows, resulting in a net positive influx of 25,000 BTC.
  • Bitcoin’s market dynamics show complexity, with Grayscale’s increasing holdings hinting at strategic maneuvers.

In cryptocurrency, recent on-chain data and ETF fund executions suggest notable trends. Specifically, the gap between on-chain $GBTC Bitcoin holdings and off-chain disclosures has garnered attention. This 19.5k $BTC disparity indicates ongoing pressure on GBTC, as highlighted by Ki Young Ju, Founder of Cryptoquant.

The graph, “Bitcoin: Fund Holdings – GBTC,” shared by Ki Young Ju, presents two data trends. One trend illustrates the price of Bitcoin in USD, and the other displays the fund holdings for GBTC. As the graph indicates, on January 18, 2024, the price of Bitcoin was recorded at approximately $41,310.55. Per the latest financial update, BTC trades at $41,380.65. 

Concurrently, the fund holdings for GBTC are reported to be 581,276.451301 Bitcoins. The graph demonstrates a marginal rising pattern in the price of Bitcoin over the preceding months. This pattern starkly contrasts the fund holdings for GBTC, which have exhibited a relatively constant level during the same period.

Moreover, the right graph displays the Grayscale BTC Reserve (On-chain). This graph tracks the balance of an address or addresses against the Bitcoin price. On January 18, 2024, the address_balance was around 561.7K Bitcoins. The steep increase in address_balance suggests significant BTC acquisitions or transfers into Grayscale’s reserve. The price line exhibits notable volatility, characteristic of cryptocurrency markets.

Additionally, these analyses reveal that Grayscale’s Bitcoin holdings have slightly increased. This increase could imply new purchases, or Bitcoin transfers into their fund. The spike in address_balance on the right graph points to a significant change in Grayscale’s BTC reserve. This change could stem from new investments, consolidation of funds, or strategic financial maneuvers.

Contrary to the narrative of “GBTC dumping sending $BTC to sub 30k,” CrediBULL Crypto offered a different perspective. While GBTC has seen consistent net outflows since the 9 $BTC ETFs launch, the inflows to the other 9 ETFs have outweighed GBTC’s outflows. This results in a net positive inflow across all ETFs of over 1 billion or 25,000 $BTC since their launch.

The analysis of Bitcoin’s market dynamics, particularly about GBTC and ETFs, indicates a complex interplay of factors. Despite the outflows from GBTC, the overall market sees a net positive inflow, suggesting a more stable and buoyant market than some narratives suggest.

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