Bitcoin Could Dip Below $100K—Standard Chartered Predicts
- Bitcoin may soon fall below $100K, but experts expect a rapid rebound afterward.
- Standard Chartered maintains a $200K year-end target despite short-term pressure.
- Trade tensions and gold’s decline could possibly shape Bitcoin’s next market cycle.
Bitcoin is trading above $111,000 as investors react to renewed trade tensions between the United States and China. Market uncertainty has led to shifting asset flows, with analysts warning of a possible retracement below the $100,000 mark before a potential rally to new highs.
According to Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, a temporary dip appears unavoidable. “A dip below $100,000 seems inevitable, although the dump may be short-lived,” Kendrick wrote in a Wednesday note to clients. He reaffirmed his year-end price target of $200,000, suggesting that Bitcoin could nearly double in value by the end of December.
Bitcoin’s Price Movement and Market Metrics
As of Thursday, data from CoinMarketCap shows that Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $111,242.23, representing a 2.21% increase in 24 hours. Its market capitalization stands at $2.21 trillion, while the fully diluted valuation (FDV) is $2.33 trillion.
Despite price strength, trading volume dropped 29.17% to $52.71 billion, reflecting reduced activity after recent volatility. Bitcoin’s circulating supply stands at 19.93 million BTC, out of a maximum of 21 million. The volume-to-market cap ratio of 2.37% indicates moderate liquidity levels.
Charts reveal intraday fluctuations between $108,450 and $111,500, with Bitcoin showing signs of consolidation near the upper resistance zone. Analysts say the token’s short-term movement reflects renewed optimism from institutional inflows and signals of global macroeconomic recovery.
Yet, despite the rally, Kendrick believes the market may soon test psychological support levels. He noted that if Bitcoin’s price returns to five-digit territory, it “may be the last time it falls below the psychological barrier.” Still, he admitted that “nobody truly knows how far it will fall before finding a base.”
Historical Trends and Geopolitical Impact
Historically, October and November have been strong months for Bitcoin, with average gains of 19.8% and 46%, respectively, since 2013, according to CoinGlass. The recurring trend, often referred to as “Uptober,” may persist, although recent global events have disrupted typical patterns.
Two weeks ago, Bitcoin’s price briefly plunged to $104,800, following earlier declines to $76,300 in April, after the White House introduced new “reciprocal” tariffs on several countries. The latest market dip follows escalating trade disputes between Washington and Beijing.
Kendrick also compared Bitcoin’s trajectory to gold, noting that the precious metal has recently outperformed BTC. Yet, he observed a shift on Tuesday when gold fell sharply, recording its most significant daily drop in over ten years. “Yesterday’s sharp gold sell-off coincided with a strong intraday bounce in Bitcoin,” he explained. “This was presumably a ‘sell gold, buy Bitcoin’ flow.”
He added that such trading behavior could support a price bottom for Bitcoin, reinforcing investor confidence. On Wednesday, gold extended its decline, trading near $4,075 per ounce, down from a record high of $4,381 set days earlier.
Related: Gold Suffers Biggest Drop Since 2013 as Bitcoin Briefly Tops $114K
Global Markets and Broader Economic Context
As geopolitical tensions evolve, broader markets have also shifted. Crude oil prices rose 2.3% to $ 58.50 per barrel, tracking renewed optimism about economic growth. Meanwhile, India is reportedly nearing a trade agreement with the U.S. that may reduce its oil imports from Russia.
Back in the U.S., investors are closely monitoring an upcoming inflation report, expected to influence short-term sentiment across equities and digital assets. Analysts suggest that easing tensions and strong corporate earnings on Wall Street have temporarily bolstered Bitcoin’s relative performance against traditional hedges, such as gold.
