Bitcoin Defies Extreme Bear Pressure with $117K Rebound — But What’s Next?
- Bitcoin rebounds to $117K despite one of the top 7% most bearish weeks this cycle.
- Heavy sell-off hits Bitcoin, yet price recovery signals strength in the bull cycle.
- Crypto analyst analysis says Bitcoin eyes $125K if breakout above $118.8K holds.
This week marked one of the most intense periods of bearish sentiment in Bitcoin’s current bull market cycle. According to a CryptoQuant chart shared by Axel Adler Jr., data shows that the total net taker volume plunged to -2.793 billion USD. This places the week among the top 7.3% of most aggressive sell-off weeks in the past 164 weeks. Despite this, Bitcoin’s price rebounded sharply, recovering to around $117,000.
The scale of the selling pressure was significant, with traders aggressively reducing long exposure across exchanges. Historically, such net taker volume signals high-risk sentiment and potential capitulation. However, the recovery in price suggests a shift in momentum, indicating that bearish sentiment may have been overstated. Analysts attribute the rebound to strategic accumulation by long-term holders and institutional buying. The swift recovery is viewed as a sign of strength in the underlying market structure.
ETF Inflows Reflect Institutional Confidence Amid Price Rebound
Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $131 million on July 25, based on SoSoValue data. BlackRock’s IBIT led the inflows, capturing $92.83 million, highlighting significant institutional demand. IBIT’s total net inflow now stands at $57.24 billion, reinforcing its dominant market position. Ark Invest and 21Shares’ ARKB ETF followed with $30.27 million in net inflows, pushing its cumulative total to $2.83 billion.
Meanwhile, Grayscale’s GBTC ETF saw the highest net outflow, losing $50.5 million. GBTC’s total net outflows have reached $23.59 billion, continuing a consistent trend. The divergence between inflows to new ETFs and outflows from GBTC indicates a reallocation of institutional capital. Investors appear to prefer newer ETFs with lower fees and improved redemption mechanisms. This shift points to evolving institutional strategies in response to market structure and ETF performance.
Disconnect Between Bearish Trading and ETF Activity
While trading volumes reflected bearish sentiment, ETF inflows suggested growing investor confidence. The continued inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs, even during heavy sell-offs, highlights a long-term investment approach. The total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs reached $151.45 billion.
Historical cumulative net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have reached $54.82 billion, underscoring persistent demand. These figures indicate that short-term price volatility has not deterred institutional interest. The rising ETF demand despite turbulent market action points to a disconnect between short-term sentiment and long-term positioning. Investors appear to be using volatility as an entry opportunity rather than exiting the market.
Related: Bitcoin Hits $115K in Selloff Linked to Trump-Powell Meeting
Technical Outlook and Price Forecast for Bitcoin
Technical analysis suggests a potential continuation of the bullish trend, supported by chart patterns and recent price action. According to analyst Captain Faibik, Bitcoin formed a descending wedge on the 4-hour chart and rebounded sharply. A key resistance level is identified at $118,800, forming the upper boundary of the pattern. A confirmed breakout above this threshold would signal a potential trend reversal.
If Bitcoin holds above the resistance level, analysts anticipate a push toward the $125,000 mark next week. The strength of the rebound from $117,000 supports the possibility of continued upward momentum. Traders are closely monitoring for confirmation of a breakout, which could trigger further institutional entry. However, failure to sustain the above resistance may result in renewed volatility. Market participants remain cautious, balancing optimism with the potential for another test of support levels.
