- Bitcoin holds near $110K as investors await the Fed’s September rate decision outcome.
- Standard Chartered now expects a 50 bps Fed rate cut after weak U.S. jobs data.
- Analysts warn that ETF flows and weak risk appetite may cap Bitcoin’s rally potential.
Bitcoin is holding steady near $110,000 as investors prepare for the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on September 17. Traders are split on whether a rate cut will spark new momentum or simply reflect deeper economic stress. The cryptocurrency gained 3.29% in the past 24 hours, trading at $110,950. Despite weaker U.S. jobs data, Bitcoin remains trapped in a tight range.
Fed Cut Expectations Rise After Weak Jobs Report
August nonfarm payrolls rose by only 22,000, well below the 75,000 estimate. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.3%, signaling the labor market is cooling. Standard Chartered now expects a 50-basis-point rate cut this month, up from its earlier 25-bps forecast.
The bank said the labor market shifted “from solid to soft in less than six weeks.”, believing a larger cut could mirror last year’s September decision, when weaker data forced the Fed to move aggressively. Bank of America also changed its view, predicting two 25 bps cuts in September and December after earlier forecasting no cuts this year.
Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a rate cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. A smaller 25 bps move remains the consensus, but traders now assign a 10% chance of a 50 bps reduction.
BTC Markets analyst Rachael Lucas said, “The soft U.S. jobs report did create expectations for a more dovish US Federal Reserve, which is normally supportive for risk assets like Bitcoin.” Lucas noted institutional profit-taking and weak ETF flows are also restraining momentum.
Why Bitcoin May Struggle Beyond $110K
Analysts warn a Fed cut alone may not send Bitcoin higher. According to Kronos Research CIO Vincent Liu said a rate reduction could reflect underlying weakness in the economy. Sticky inflation and fragile risk appetite may keep buyers cautious.
ETF flows have slowed in September compared to record highs earlier this summer. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum funds saw weaker demand in the first week of the month. Since institutional capital has driven the cycle, this cooling trend signals fading momentum.
Lucas said the key support level remains at $110,000, and if Bitcoin holds above this zone, the market structure stays constructive. The resistance sits at 113,400 with higher levels at $115,400 and $117,100. Breaking those levels would indicate the market has taken in recent selling pressure and is now ready to re-test the highs.
Related: Corporate Bitcoin Treasuries Surpass 1 Million BTC, Led by Strategy
Meanwhile, on-chain data gives a mixed picture. Stablecoin supply is near historic highs, which creates liquidity that may add fuel to rallies. Meanwhile, both Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange balances continue to drop, which reduces selling pressure in the short term.
On the other hand, regulators at the SEC and CFTC are working toward harmonized rules for digital assets. ETF flow data and new approvals will remain crucial sentiment drivers. Still, Liu said a larger Fed cut might not be good news. A 50 bps move could suggest worsening economic conditions, reducing appetite for risk assets. Traders may remain cautious until they see broader liquidity expansion and stronger ETF demand.
For now, Bitcoin’s consolidation reflects uncertainty. The Fed’s September meeting could become a pivotal moment for markets. A modest cut may bring little relief, while a bigger one risks signaling economic stress.
Investors are also watching the U.S. initial jobless claims report, which arrives just after the Fed decision. That data could amplify market reactions and shape near-term direction. Until then, Bitcoin’s next move remains tied closely to the balance between liquidity hopes and economic warning signs.
