12 April, 2024



Bitcoin’s 2024 Halving: Historical Patterns Suggest Imminent Price Movements

11 Oct, 2023

11 Oct, 2023

  • Past Bitcoin cycles hint at possible retracements 190 days before Halving events.
  • Bitcoin’s 2024 Halving approaches, stirring comparisons to 2015 and 2019 price movements.
  • Standard Chartered’s projections underline heightened optimism for Bitcoin’s and Ethereum’s future.

As the much-anticipated 2024 Bitcoin Halving approaches in less than 190 days, analysts and investors are looking to the past to predict potential price movements. Historical price tendencies from the 2015 and 2019 Halving events provide a roadmap for what might unfold in the coming months.

Rekt Capital, a crypto trader, and analyst, shared insights on a Twitter post providing the insights regarding Bitcoin’s behavior leading up to the much-anticipated 2024 Halving event: 

Currently, roughly 190 days before the next Halving, Bitcoin stands at a crucial juncture. In 2015, it witnessed a 25% retrace, while in 2019, it experienced a sharper -38% dip. Should it follow these trends, BTC’s price could drop to about $21,000, closely approaching the Macro Higher Low of approximately $19,000. A deeper dip, reminiscent of 2019, could see it plummet to roughly $17,000. Such a drop might be the last time BTC revisits these price ranges before a pre-halving rally kicks in.

Historical trends suggest that after the anticipated retrace, a rally might begin, originating near the Macro Higher Low. This surge could push Bitcoin to revisit prices in the high $20,000s, potentially breaking through the resistance that has plagued it throughout 2023. A local top, forming just before the Halving, might signal the start of a pre-halving retrace.

Previous Halving events have shown Bitcoin’s price dip before the event itself. In 2016, there was a substantial -40% retrace. In contrast, 2020 saw a milder -20% dip. If Bitcoin reaches a local top near $31,000 in 2024, a -25% dip would mean a retest of the previously mentioned resistance. Consequently, this year’s retrace might mirror the 2020 dip more closely.

After the initial post-halving dip, Bitcoin’s price might stabilize, consolidating around its recent highs. Drawing parallels from 2019, the cryptocurrency might face a -21% post-Halving retrace. However, this period is generally viewed as a re-accumulation phase, setting the stage for a breakout into a bullish trend.

Today’s Bitcoin price analysis indicates a bearish market, with the cryptocurrency trading around $27,000 levels. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $27,161, with a 1.27% decline in the last 24 hours.  The trading volume and market capitalization have been oscillating around $12 billion and $529 billion, respectively, in the past 24 hours. The current performance of BTC might be a decisive factor in predicting its behavior in the coming months as it approaches the highly anticipated Halving event.

Colin Wu, a prominent Chinese crypto reporter, shared insights on Twitter highlighting the optimistic predictions made by Standard Chartered, a prominent banking institution.

Upon overcoming the 2023 local top resistance, Bitcoin is poised to enter a significant bullish phase, marked by steep upward price movement. Outside of these patterns, prominent financial institutions are weighing in with their predictions. Standard Chartered’s recent forecast suggests bullish prospects for cryptocurrencies. 

According to the bank, Bitcoin could touch the $50,000 mark by the end of 2023 and escalate to $120,000 by the end of 2024. Moreover, Ethereum isn’t left behind, with predictions of its price soaring from the current $1,600 to an impressive $8,000 by the close of 2026. The bank’s early forecast in April clearly indicated the end of the so-called cryptocurrency winter.

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