23 April, 2024

Crypto Analyst Unveils Bitcoin’s Pre-Halving Insights: Is 2023 Special?

21 Jul, 2023

12 Feb, 2024

  • Benjamin Cowen uncovers similarities in BTC’s pre-halving ROI in 2014, 2018, and 2020.
  • Market dynamics and an inverted yield curve are fundamental in Bitcoin’s pre-halving performance.
  • Cowen believes 2023 has been following a typical pre-halving year pattern.

Cryptocurrency enthusiasts closely monitor Bitcoin’s performance this year, especially as it approaches its pre-halving period. Benjamin Cowen, the founder of Intocryptoverse and a prominent figure in the crypto space, delved into the year-to-date return on investment (ROI) of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Cardano.

Reviewing the data, Cowen compared Bitcoin’s ROI for the years leading up to its halvings in 2014, 2018, and 2020. Surprisingly, they all exhibited striking similarities, debunking the notion that this time was different. This observation comes after the speculation that Bitcoin had already bottomed out in 2022 when it hit $17,500, similar to the mistaken belief in 2018 when many thought $6,000 was the bottom. Historical patterns have shown that Bitcoin tends to exhibit a higher low or a double bottom in the pre-halving years.

However, Cowen emphasized that history does not guarantee future events, and warned investors to be cautious about assuming market movements. According to him, market dynamics are complex, and various factors could influence the trajectory of cryptocurrencies. While some claim that Bitcoin would not fade during the second half of the pre-halving year, Cowen urged a prudent approach, considering probabilities rather than certainties.

One significant factor that plays a role in pre-halving year performance is the inverted yield curve, which typically indicates market uncertainty. Historically, markets tend to climb the wall of worry during an inverted yield curve, but this could lead to economic downturns, especially during periods of high inflation. Cowen highlighted the relevance of studying previous years, like 2018, which provided a roadmap for 2020, to prepare for potential outcomes during the current cycle.

BTC/USD price, yield curve chart, Source: TradingView

While this year’s market may feel different, Cowen emphasized that, so far, it has been following a typical pre-halving year pattern. Many cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum and Cardano, demonstrated similar ROI levels to what was observed in 2015 and 2019 during the same period. This observation suggests that despite the different paths taken by individual cryptocurrencies, overall market trends remain consistent.

Cowen also examined total market cap trends, comparing 2023 with the average of 2015 and 2019. The comparison revealed that the total market cap was on a similar trajectory, hinting at a possible market rollover in the coming months. As history often repeats itself, Cowen advised investors to exercise caution and not get carried away by predictions of new all-time highs this year.


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