Gemini Plans to Launch Prediction Markets Amid Regulatory Delays
- Gemini plans to launch prediction market contracts, but approval may face shutdown delays.
- The exchange plans to offer event-based markets for politics, sports, and finance.
- This move enables it to compete with Kalshi and Polymarket in regulated markets.
Gemini, the cryptocurrency exchange founded by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, is preparing to enter prediction markets. The company recently filed an application with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to launch event-based prediction contracts.
The move comes as financial platforms and major exchanges compete to take advantage of this emerging market. However, Gemini’s plans may face delays if regulatory procedures are further delayed by the current U.S. government shutdown.
Gemini Expands Beyond Crypto Trading
According to individuals familiar with the matter, Gemini’s new venture will allow users to place controlled bets on real-world outcomes. These could include elections, sports results, or economic events. The goal is to diversify Gemini’s offerings. It also aims to compete with rivals like Kalshi and Polymarket, which already operate in this space.
Gemini recently applied for regulatory approval to create a designated contract market for derivatives trading. This platform will also support the upcoming prediction contracts once approved. Company executives have held internal discussions about how to integrate the service into Gemini’s existing ecosystem.
The approval process with the CFTC can take months or even years, depending on market conditions and regulatory reviews. Any government shutdown would likely extend the timeline. Sources close to the matter say Gemini expects a lengthy wait but remains committed to the project.
Other exchanges have taken a different approach to entering the market. Some, like Robinhood, have chosen to collaborate with licensed prediction market providers rather than building from scratch. Robinhood, for example, offers clients event contracts through Kalshi Inc., a registered trading exchange.
A Growing Trend Among Financial Firms
The interest in prediction markets has surged in recent months. Even mainstream institutions such as CME Group Inc. and Intercontinental Exchange Inc. are exploring ways to enter the space. Trump Media and Technology Group also announced plans to integrate prediction markets into its Truth Social platform. The company partnered with Crypto.com to launch Truth Predict. It will use Crypto.com Derivatives North America as a clearinghouse. Initial testing for the new product is expected soon.
For Gemini, this move comes at a critical time. The firm has been under pressure to innovate following its public listing in September. In a regulatory filing before its IPO, Gemini stated that it intended to launch event contracts covering political, economic, financial, and sports predictions.
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Since going public, Gemini’s stock has fallen about 40% from its debut price. The company is expected to release its first earnings report as a public firm on November 10. According to its IPO prospectus, Gemini remains unprofitable. It handles a relatively small share of crypto trading in the United States.
Meanwhile, competitors like Coinbase Global Inc. are also expanding into similar markets. During recent earnings calls, Coinbase executives said they plan to offer event contracts as part of a broader vision to become an “Everything Exchange” for financial products.
This growing competition underscores how exchanges are evolving beyond cryptocurrency trading. Prediction markets are currently viewed by many as the next big thing in digital finance. These markets seek to merge traditional finance with blockchain-driven transparency, offering users new ways to interact with global events.
