- The demand momentum for Bitcoin leaves traders uncertain about the next price shift.
- Past trends show Bitcoin surges after halving, with analysts eyeing 2025 for a peak.
- The market is waiting for a strong event to decide if Bitcoin will break past $100,000.
Bitcoin’s four-year market cycle remains intact, with past peaks recorded at $1,242 (Nov 29, 2013), $19,891 (Dec 17, 2017), and $69,000 (Nov 10, 2021). If this cycle persists, BTC may reach a new all-time high in Q4 2025. Based on previous 16x (2013–2017) and 3.5x (2017–2021) surges, conservative estimates suggest a $200K–$300K range for the next spike. The 2024 halving will further reduce block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, historically triggering post-halving rallies due to restricted supply and heightened scarcity.
Power Law Cycle Cloud Aligns with Historical Trends
Crypto analyst apsk32, through on-chain data from X (formerly Twitter), presented the Power Law Cycle Cloud, a trendline that has tracked Bitcoin’s long-term support levels for nearly 15 years. This logarithmic trendline indicates that the token repeatedly reverts to its valuation level after rallies. The ‘years-ahead’ metric estimates how far Bitcoin’s price is ahead of its long-term support level.
In 2021, Bitcoin was 4.5 years ahead of support at its peak. As of February 2025, the metric suggests 1–2 years ahead, reinforcing the possibility of sustained upside momentum. The ETF-driven demand, which pushed Bitcoin from $49,000+ to its current $96,000+ range, mirrors the 2017 rally from $1,000 to $19,891.
The 2021 double-top formation around $69,000 disrupted the expected parabolic cycle but ultimately preserved the four-year pattern, potentially delaying Bitcoin’s next major peak. If historical patterns hold, Q4 2025 could witness a parabolic surge driven by post-halving scarcity, institutional inflows, and macroeconomic conditions.
Related: Bitcoin OTC Reserves Drop to 140,000 BTC: Supply Crunch Looms
Bitcoin’s Demand Momentum Enters Indecision Zone
Market analyst Miles Deutscher highlighted that Bitcoin’s demand momentum has stalled, indicating a critical inflection point. Demand momentum, defined as the 30-day change in short-term supply minus the 30-day change in long-term supply, has flattened.
Historical shifts in Bitcoin’s demand reveal two major surges over the past year. In March–April 2024, positive demand exceeded 100K, aligning with Bitcoin’s rally from $40,000 to $65,000. A second momentum spike between October and December 2024 coincided with Bitcoin’s ascent from $70,000 to nearly $100,000. However, these surges were supported by strong positive momentum, which is now fading.
The negative momentum zone observed between June and October 2024 correlated with Bitcoin’s decline from $72,000 to $60,000, demonstrating the indicator’s predictive accuracy. With demand flattening, traders remain uncertain about Bitcoin’s next major move. Could this stagnation signal a deeper correction, or is Bitcoin gearing up for a breakout above $100,000?
Relating this to apsk32’s Power Law Cycle Cloud, Bitcoin remains 1-2 years ahead of its long-term support trend, making a parabolic move toward $200,000–$250,000 by late 2025 feasible. The current demand stagnation may serve as a reset before Bitcoin’s next explosive leg up.
Based on historical data, holding BTC in the indecision zone is the wiser move. Previous stagnation phases, like $50K in 2021 and $7K in 2017, preceded major rallies. With post-halving upside potential and BTC still 1–2 years ahead of its support trend, long-term holders may benefit from waiting for the next breakout.
