Japan Bond Yields Hit Record Highs: Is Crypto Going To Be Bullish?

• Japan’s 30-year bond yield hit a record high as investors priced in further BOJ rate hikes.
• Short- and long-term Japanese bond yields climbed to multi-decade highs early in 2026.
• Japan’s government cut super-long bond issuance to ease supply pressure as yields surged.

Japan’s bond market entered 2026 under sharp pressure as long-term yields climbed to levels unseen in decades raising questions across global markets, including crypto. The yield on the 30-year Japanese government bond reached 3.455%, a record high.

The move marked a decisive shift from Japan’s long era of ultra-low yields. It also highlighted how tightening financial conditions in major economies continue to reshape global risk dynamics.

Bond Yields Push to Multi-Decade Highs

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield jumped 5.5 basis points to 2.125% on Monday. That marked its highest level since February 1999. The two-year yield also increased and went up by 2.5 basis points to 1.195% which is the highest it has been since August 1996.

Market participants attributed the move to rising concerns over the Bank of Japan’s end-point for interest rates. Naoya Hasegawa, a senior bond strategist at Okasan Securities, said investors now see risks above the current market consensus. That consensus places the terminal rate near 1.5%.

Hasegawa noted that the yen has remained weak against the U.S. dollar. He said currency pressure continues to shape inflation expectations. Higher import costs add to that concern, reinforcing expectations for additional policy tightening.

The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 0.75% last month from 0.5%. However, Governor Kazuo Ueda has not indicated when the next move may come. Markets still expect gradual action rather than rapid tightening.

Government Steps In as Market Struggles

Longer-dated bonds also reflected mounting pressure. The five-year yield rose 5.5 basis points to 1.6%, its highest level since June 2007. Meanwhile, the 20-year yield increased by 5 basis points to 3.305%.

The sharpest focus remained on the super-long end of the curve. The 30-year yield gained another 5 basis points to reach its record high. Traders said supply dynamics added to the volatility.

Eiichiro Miura, senior general manager of investments at Nissay Asset Management, said investors struggled to price bonds correctly. He said rapid yield increases made dip-buying difficult. As a result, market confidence remained fragile.

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In response, the Japanese government announced changes to its bond issuance plans. Officials said they will reduce the issuance of super-long bonds in the next fiscal year. They also plan to hold issuance of benchmark 10-year bonds steady.

The government aims to ease concerns about oversupply in the market. Miura said the latest yield moves signal the need for additional government measures. He added that market stability remains a key priority.

Global investors are monitoring the situation closely. An increase in Japanese yields may transform capital flows in the asset classes. Analysts continue to assess how higher yields may influence risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Markets are so far still looking to the Bank of Japan cues. Volatility is expected to continue as the policymakers work on inflation risks and concerns about economic growth. Japan’s bond market stands at a critical point as 2026 begins.