PENGU Stabilizes Amid Bear Pressure: Bounce or Breakdown?

• PENGU steadies at historic support after steep weekly and monthly losses tighten pressure.
• Futures activity cools as open interest drops, signaling reduced trader participation.
• Macro strain and weak NFT markets weigh on sentiment as price compresses in a triangle.

PENGU spent another week pinned near the lower edge of its trading range, slipping to about $0.00756 after a fresh 2% decline. The drop adds to a sharp weekly slide of roughly 25% and a month-long retreat nearing 40%, placing the token back inside a familiar support pocket where the market has paused more than once.

Traders who have watched this zone before, between $0.0086 and $0.0057, know it tends to draw out quieter trading and slower price shifts. Yet the mood around the asset has not changed much.

Selling pressure that took hold in late July continues to anchor sentiment, even as the price approaches territory that previously interrupted downtrends. Consequently, the action has flattened out, though not enough to shift the broader narrative.

Triangle Structure Tightens While Technical Pressure Holds

Technically, a symmetrical triangle has taken shape on the weekly chart, the sort that builds quietly when lower highs fold into higher lows. It is not a pattern known for direction; instead, it reflects compression.

Here, that compression has grown more pronounced as the descending resistance line meets a rising support base, tightening the PENGU price range into a narrow corridor. Yet, broader momentum still favors the bears.

Source: TradingView

All major moving averages sit above the current market, with the 20-week MA near $0.014 and the 50-week MA around $0.017. Price has not attempted to reclaim either level, leaving the broader trend unchanged. These overhead clusters have acted more like a ceiling than a guide, reinforcing how far sentiment has fallen since late last summer.

Still, one indicator pushes back against the gloom. The RSI, hovering near 35, sits close to oversold territory. That reading hints that the sell-side may not have much energy left, even if it does not guarantee relief. It simply shows fatigue.

Derivatives Turn Quiet as Open Interest Drops

On the other hand, the derivatives market provides another angle. According to CoinGlass data, PENGU’s open interest has cooled to roughly $59 million, down from a peak of $129 million seen on January 6.

Source: CoinGlass

Such a sharp retreat usually reflects declining conviction rather than aggressive positioning. This shows that fewer traders are leaning into risk, while fewer are fighting the trend. Futures volume has also settled into a narrow band around $238 million.

Source: CoinGlass

The lack of movement suggests participants are waiting for a clean signal before taking new positions. As a result, the PENGU price tends to stagnate in these environments in the near term, drifting until either volume or sentiment jolts it awake.

Related: Why Bitcoin’s 2026 Cycle Bottom Slipped Below $80K

Macro And Sector Strain Add Weight

External forces have not helped either. Fears of tighter U.S. monetary policy resurfaced after President Trump moved to nominate Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair. Markets reacted quickly, sending Bitcoin toward $72K and dragging altcoins down with it. Assets like PENGU, already fragile, often absorb more damage during such episodes.

Meanwhile, the NFT sector, an indirect pillar for the token’s ecosystem, has cooled. Aggregate data hints that weekly NFT sales slid 38% to $74.88 million, even though buyer activity ticked higher. Pudgy Penguins sales rose 23% to $2.28 million, but that strength did little to offset broader softness. Reduced NFT turnover dampens utility channels tied to PENGU price, trimming potential demand.

Taken together, the chart, derivatives data, and macro backdrop point to a token caught between exhaustion and indecision. The support band remains intact, though pressure continues to build around it. Whether the next break is a release or another leg down depends on which force arrives first, renewed volume or renewed selling.