Robinhood, Susquehanna To Launch CFTC-Regulated Exchange
- Robinhood set to launch CFTC-regulated exchange, boosting prediction market access.
- Joint venture with Susquehanna adds liquidity and strengthens institutional support.
- Over 9B prediction market contracts traded, showing fast retail adoption and growth.
Robinhood Markets has agreed a joint venture with Susquehanna International Group to acquire 90% of MIAX Derivatives Exchange, known as MIAXdx. The deal will build a dedicated futures and derivatives platform for prediction markets under U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversight. MIAX will keep the remaining 10% stake, and the new exchange aims to start operations in 2026 after regulatory approvals.
Robinhood Prediction Markets Joint Venture and MIAXdx Acquisition
Under the agreement, Robinhood will control the new venture and supply distribution through its large retail trading base. Susquehanna will act as a key market maker and day-one liquidity provider, adding institutional liquidity to the platform from launch. MIAXdx already holds core CFTC licenses, which allow the venture to list and clear event contracts without waiting for new approvals.
The transaction also includes LedgerX, a regulated derivatives exchange that Miami International Holdings bought from FTX in 2023. After closing, the partners plan to use MIAXdx and LedgerX as the core of a new venue focused on futures, options, and event contracts that tie payouts to real-world outcomes.
JB Mackenzie, Robinhood’s vice president and general manager of futures and international, said the company sees strong customer interest in event contracts and wants to expand that footprint. “Robinhood is seeing strong customer demand for prediction markets, and we’re excited to build on that momentum,” he said.
Rapid Growth in Robinhood Prediction Markets and New Infrastructure
Company filings and analyst reports show that prediction markets now rank among Robinhood’s fastest-growing businesses by revenue. Since launching in 2024, users have traded about 9 billion contracts, and more than 1 million customers have participated on the platform.
In the third quarter of 2025, Robinhood processed about 2.3 billion event contracts. Analysts estimate an annual revenue run rate above $300 million from prediction activity. Bernstein says Robinhood already accounts for more than half of volumes on sector leader Kalshi through an existing distribution deal and now wants to “leverage its distribution edge” by adding its own exchange and liquidity.
Robinhood has said it expects to keep offering Kalshi contracts on its app while also listing more event products directly on the new CFTC-regulated exchange. It aims to bring more contracts in-house and serve both retail and institutional traders through the new venue as demand for event-driven products grows.
Following the news, HOOD traded around $115 in New York, and Bernstein kept an “outperform” rating with a $160 price target tied to prediction market growth expectations.’
Related: Robinhood Launches Social Trading and AI Tools at HOOD Summit
Competition in Regulated Prediction Markets Continues to Intensify
The joint venture launches into an increasingly crowded field of regulated prediction markets and event trading venues. Polymarket, which previously faced U.S. restrictions, has secured an amended CFTC designation that allows it to work with broker-dealers and futures commission merchants and reenter the American market.
Intercontinental Exchange has committed up to $2 billion to Polymarket, and major derivatives groups such as CME Group and Cboe are exploring event contracts of their own. At the same time, crypto exchange Coinbase prepares a potential prediction market product that could either partner with an existing venue or run on a white-label basis, according to analyst commentary.
Analysts point to a split between platforms that supply liquidity, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, and distribution channels like Robinhood and major crypto exchanges. With about 14 million active traders, Robinhood adds exchange infrastructure to its retail base and targets a larger share of regulated prediction markets revenue as the sector matures.
