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Standard Chartered Predicts BTC to Hit $200K by End of 2025

  • Standard Chartered sees Bitcoin hitting $135K in Q3 and $200K by year-end 2025.
  • Strong ETF demand and corporate accumulation could help prevent post-halving price declines.
  • Macroeconomic factors, such as Fed policy and inflation, will shape Bitcoin’s path ahead.

Bitcoin may be preparing for an explosive rally if the projection made by global banking giant Standard Chartered holds true. Geoff Kendrick, the head of the digital assets research at the bank, has stated that the cryptocurrency may end Q3 at $135,000. Additionally, he projects that Bitcoin will reach a high of $200,000 by the end of 2025.

The anticipated increase is associated with favorable fundamentals, intensive growth in institutional adoption, and changes to the patterns of Bitcoin post-halving cycles. As the inflow of investors increases, analysts now believe that the price of Bitcoin will not trend as it has in the past, experiencing a post-halving decline 18 months after every halving. 

Kendrick outlined a change in earlier halving patterns. In 2016 and 2020, the price of Bitcoin generally dropped 18 months after the halving process. However, the April 2024 halving will be different and potentially deviate from that trend.

Among the differences he cited were robust demand by spot ETF and corporate buyers. More supply is being soaked up by these new entrants in the market. That may help promote prices outside the historical halving schedules.

The structural impact of institutional inflows is reshaping market behavior, and Kendrick believes this is altering how Bitcoin responds to halving events. He suggests this could reduce the risk of late-cycle price drops seen in previous halving cycles. 

Bolstering the optimism, Kendrick predicted in February 2025 that by the time Donald Trump finished his presidential term, Bitcoin would soar over half a million dollars. Furthermore, he stated that ETFs and corporate purchasers had already amassed approximately 245,000 BTC in Q2 alone. He said: “We expect that level to be exceeded in both Q3 and Q4.” 

Related: Robert Kiyosaki Buys Bitcoin, Prefers Risk Over Regret

According to data from SoSoValue, Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. recorded their first day of net outflows since June 6. As of Tuesday, $342.3 million had flowed out of the market. This reversal is equivalent to approximately 7% of the $ 4.8 billion in cumulative inflows over the last 15 trading days. It serves as a reminder that volatility is one of the most significant characteristics of the cryptocurrency sphere.

Bitcoin’s Future Tied to Global Markets and Policy Moves

In addition to market sentiment, the performance of Bitcoin is also heavily dependent on other macroeconomic factors at play. The recent decision by the Federal Reserve to keep the interest rates at 4.25% to 4.5% and the inflation rate at 2.4% also maintains the market in a cautious gear.

In the meantime, geopolitical risks (such as tensions between the U.S. and China in terms of trade, and chaos in the Middle East) introduce new levels of uncertainty, which may affect crypto markets in the future.

Regardless of these risks, Kendrick insists that structural market shifts are in favor of Bitcoin. He perceives the asset as both highly unrelated to speculative trading cycles and directly related to long-term macro trends.

The journey to $200,000 will be defined by interest rate policy, institutional flows, and ETF popularity as Bitcoin reaches the second half of 2025. The success of the forecast will be determined by the position these forces establish in the coming months.

Disclaimer: The information provided by CryptoTale is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any investment decisions. CryptoTale is not liable for any financial losses resulting from the use of the content.

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