- Arthur Hayes sold $5.1M HYPE ahead of a $12B major unlock starting November 29, 2025.
- Whale TechnoRevenant withdrew $122M HYPE, intensifying pressure on circulating supply.
- DAT Sonnet holds $583M HYPE but remains small against $500M monthly unlock inflows.
The DeFi sector is gearing up for a major test as Hyperliquid (HYPE) nears a $12 billion token unlock from November 29, 2025. At the same time, Bitcoin’s monthly returns have cooled to roughly 12% this year, with October projections closer to 9%. This aligns with Michael Saylor’s outlook that institutional adoption is flattening volatility in Bitcoin.
Hayes Sells Before Unlock Pressure
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, had reportedly sold 96,600 HYPE tokens on September 21, worth about $5.1 million, citing the unlock as the primary concern. The decision came weeks after he publicly predicted HYPE could eventually reach $5,000 per token at the WebX Summit in Tokyo.
His sale delivered a 19% profit within a month, indicating his tactical exit ahead of the dilution period. According to a research note from Maelstrom, Hayes’ family office, 237.8 million HYPE will vest over 24 months starting November 29.
With price hovering around $50, this amounts to $11.9 billion in new supply, or nearly $500 million monthly. The analysis warned that Hyperliquid’s buyback program can only absorb about 17% of the flow, leaving an estimated $410 million each month in excess supply.
This concern shows Hayes’ description of the unlock as a “Sword of Damocles” for HYPE holders. Despite his sale, he emphasized long-term confidence, noting the possibility of a 126 times increase by 2028. His stance shows a growing divide between near-term risks and distant upside predictions.
Whale Withdrawals Add Pressure
HYPE’s challenges intensified on September 22 when a whale “TechnoRevenant” withdrew 2.39 million tokens, valued at $122 million, from a primary wallet. According to Lookonchain analysis, the tokens accumulated at around $12 each earlier in 2025, giving the address more than $90 million in unrealized gains.
The timing raised market concerns, especially given the token’s 300% surge in just two months. Analysts cautioned that such large withdrawals could increase short-term volatility due to HYPE’s liquidity profile. This came as Hayes’ warnings about unlock pressure were still circulating. These factors of whale activity and upcoming dilution have placed HYPE under increased scrutiny, and it remains to be seen whether large holders will increase selling into the unlock period or continue holding.
DATs and Institutional Backing
To counterbalance supply shocks, Hyperliquid has leaned on Decentralized Autonomous Treasuries (DATs). The largest, Sonnet, is expected to finalize in Q4 2025, with reserves of about $583 million in HYPE and $305 million in cash. Supported by Paradigm and other institutional firms, Sonnet aims to offset part of the unlocking pressure.
However, according to Maelstrom, even Sonnet and smaller DATs combined remain limited compared with the scale of the upcoming vesting. At nearly $500 million monthly, the unlock slows existing reserves. Buybacks at current levels are also insufficient to absorb the projected selling pressure.
Competition has intensified in the broader decentralized exchange market. Rivals include established Tier-1 platforms and newer entrants such as Lighter.xyz, backed by Maelstrom. Reportedly, former Binance chief Changpeng Zhao has also supported Aster, a competing exchange, ahead of the unlock timeline.
Related: 170 Hyperliquid Traders Top $10M Profits as HYPE Hits New High
Bitcoin’s Institutional Era and DeFi’s Test
The background to HYPE’s unlock is Bitcoin’s shift toward stability as institutional flows dominate. According to predictions, October’s average monthly return could slow to 9%, down from 12% earlier in 2025.
This aligns with Michael Saylor’s view that institutional adoption is reducing Bitcoin’s volatility, pushing it into a slower, steadier era. The contrast is clear: Bitcoin’s institutional calm is coinciding with one of DeFi’s most volatile supply events.
HYPE’s $12 billion unlock is more than a dilution challenge, changing whether DeFi tokens can withstand shocks in a market defined increasingly by institutional steadiness. The outcome will indicate how volatile assets perform in a market where Bitcoin now defines the outlook with reduced swings.
Meanwhile, HYPE’s looming unlock, whale withdrawals, and rising competition reveal a DeFi sector colliding with Bitcoin’s new era of stability. The exit of Hayes, Maelstrom’s warnings, and Sonnet’s limited capacity emphasize the scale of dilution pressure. With institutional flows limiting Bitcoin volatility, the test ahead shows the gap between DeFi’s volatility and Bitcoin’s steadier institutional era.
