Arthur Hayes: US ‘Colonization’ of Venezuela Could Lift Bitcoin
- Arthur Hayes links U.S. Venezuela control to looser liquidity and higher BTC upside.
- Bitcoin reclaimed its 50-day average near $94K, signaling firmer short-term momentum.
- Options open interest clusters at $100K for Jan 30 expiry, showing retest expectations.
Bitcoin price climbed to a more than one-month high on Monday as traders reacted to headlines from Venezuela and firmer risk appetite. The largest cryptocurrency traded near $94,000 in New York after rising as much as 3.9% intraday.
Bitcoin also moved above its 50-day moving average for the first time since the early-October selloff. Many traders track that line for trend shifts. The move followed weeks of tight trading, after Bitcoin fell 24% in the fourth quarter.
The rebound also narrowed a performance gap. Stocks and precious metals advanced into the new year, while Bitcoin lagged. Monday’s move suggested digital assets started to catch up with broader risk gains.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes added a sharper narrative. Hayes said the U.S. “colonization” of Venezuela could push Bitcoin higher. He linked that view to oil prices and U.S. liquidity.
Arthur Hayes View
Hayes argued that U.S. leaders focus on voter sentiment, and energy costs matter most. He said cheaper gasoline can reduce inflation pressure. That can give policymakers room to support growth.
In that setup, Hayes expects easier financial conditions to lift Bitcoin price. Bitcoin often tracks liquidity expansions during risk-on periods. Hence, he framed Venezuela as an energy and liquidity story, not only politics.
Hayes also highlighted a simple dashboard for traders. He pointed to crude oil, 10-year Treasury yields, and bond volatility as key signals. If oil and yields stay contained, officials can keep credit flowing.
Maduro’s Arrest Revives “Shadow Reserve”
U.S. forces apprehended Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro late last week. The arrest sparked speculation about state-linked crypto holdings and possible asset seizures. Some traders cited claims of a large Venezuelan Bitcoin stash.
Singapore-based crypto options firm QCP urged caution on reserve headlines. The firm said misinformation can spread fast during geopolitical events. Still, QCP noted one market risk worth tracking.
If authorities seize coins and retain them, supply could tighten. That outcome would strengthen the sovereign-accumulation narrative in Bitcoin. It could also support higher prices if demand holds steady.
Derivatives desks also pointed to limited near-term selling pressure. FalconX said crypto-focused buyers drove recent gains, while miners and large holders showed less urgency to sell. That backdrop can reduce friction during rebounds.
Related: U.S. Bitcoin Reserve Faces Scrutiny After Reports of Government Sales
Bitcoin Options Cluster at $100,000
Derivatives data showed traders aiming for a return to $100,000. Open interest in Bitcoin options clustered around Jan. 30 contracts at a $100,000 strike. That position carried more than double the notional size of the next contract.
Traders also built protection on the downside. The second-largest options position sat in $80,000 puts with the same expiry. Consequently, the market showed a mix of bullish targets and hedged risk.
Flows and funding metrics also strengthened sentiment. Investors added $471 million to the 12 U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs on Jan. 2. That marked the largest daily inflow since Nov. 11.
Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rates also climbed to their highest level since Oct. 18. Higher funding often signals stronger demand for leveraged long exposure. However, funding can cool fast if the price stalls.
FalconX said Bitcoin needs a sustained hold above $94,000 to extend gains. The desk also flagged $88,000 as a key downside level. The next sessions will test whether demand can support a broader Bitcoin surge.
