Dalio’s 15% Portfolio Allocation: Gold and Bitcoin’s Role in a Financial Crisis

Arslan TabishJuly 29, 2025Last Updated: July 29, 2025

3 minutes read

Dalio Recommends 15% Bitcoin or Gold Amid U.S. Debt Crisis

Dalio recommends a 15% allocation to Bitcoin or gold to hedge against U.S. debt risks.
U.S. fiscal deficit requires $12 trillion in new debt, worsening the country’s financial path.
U.S. to borrow an extra $1T in Q3, Dalio warns of debt doom loop and currency decline.

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, has recommended a 15% portfolio allocation to Bitcoin or gold. The legendary investor warns of a looming “classic devaluation” of fiat currencies as the U.S. faces mounting debt. With the government’s unsustainable fiscal path, Dalio’s advice reflects growing institutional hedging strategies focused on these alternative assets.

The U.S. is spending $7 trillion every year, but only collects $5 trillion in revenue, leaving a $2 trillion deficit. Dalio notes that the nation will need to issue $12 trillion in new debt within the next year to cover the shortfall. This includes $1 trillion in interest payments, leaving the country on an unsustainable trajectory. Without action, the situation could worsen significantly.

Dalio’s 15% Allocation: Bitcoin vs. Gold

Dalio has been a long advocate of gold as opposed to Bitcoin, due to the fact that gold is the second-largest reserve currency in the world. Yet, he admits that Bitcoin has the benefits of being a scarce alternative. He proposes a 15% base portfolio position made up of either gold or Bitcoin. This has been the advice since both investments brand themselves as hedges to current fiscal volatility.

Dalio also pointed out the U.S. dollar’s decline in purchasing power. Since the Federal Reserve’s creation in 1913, the dollar has lost over 96% of its value. The currency’s decline accelerated following the 1971 end of the gold standard, and Dalio warns this trend is set to continue. Bitcoin and gold are seen as effective hedges against further fiat devaluation.

U.S. Debt Surge: Dalio’s Warning and Fiscal Solution

The Monday release of a U.S. Treasury report showed that it will require an extra $1 trillion in borrowing in Q3. This makes it a total of $453 billion than the anticipated, owing to lesser cash flow and reserves.

Treasury also claims to borrow an additional $590 billion in Q4, which further adds to the dependence on debt to finance the budget. This compromises the future of the fiscal situation of the country.

Dalio said that every Western nation except the UK struggles with such issues with the debt doom loop. He is confident that their currencies will perform poorly relative to hard assets such as Bitcoin and gold, which are critical diversifiers.

The U.S. national debt has grown to be 6 times the annual revenue, and the fiscal deficit is 7 percent of GDP, worse in comparison to any other industrialized state. Dalio has given an initial 3% solution that would involve an increase in tax and a spending cut to balance the national finances. But he was doubtful whether it was possible to overcome political will when it came to the fiscal reforms needed.

The remarks made by Dalio indicate larger issues in the world. According to Dalio, major fiat currencies will decline in value compared to hard assets such as gold. Bitcoin and gold are essential assets in such a landscape in terms of long-term hedging practices.

The recommendation of the 15% allocation by Dalio serves to give a red flag on the U.S. debt crisis and the necessity of specifying the diversification. Both Bitcoin and Gold continue to be good hedges against fiat devaluation.

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